Coming out of the All-Star break the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies are two of the teams that look the best in the MLB.
They’ve both won their first three over this past weekend, but they did it in very different ways. The Brewers did it with their pitching, and the Phillies flexed their muscle at the dish. Now, they square off for three games in Philadelphia.
The 52-42 Brewers are leading the NL Central and will go with Julio Teheran on the mound tonight against the 51-42 Phillies who will counter with Aaron Nola.
Teheran is 2-3 in eight starts with a 3.64 ERA and Nola is 8-6 in his 19 starts with a 4.39 ERA. Nola hasn’t pitched like an ace this season, but the Phillies are still strong favorites in this matchup because of him.
Brewers vs. Phillies odds, run line and total
Brewers vs. Phillies prediction and pick
Julio Teheran made six really great starts for the Brewers, but it's not looking sustainable. In his last two starts he crashed back to earth, but he isn’t done yet.
Over those two starts he has allowed 13 total runs across 11.2 innings with four home runs allowed, all in the first of those two starts. Teheran’s FIP is 4.62 and actually went down after getting shelled last time, but he ERA is going to keep climbing and this one will be another rough start.
Milwaukee has relied on its pitching staff being very strong to start the second half and sweep the Cincinnati Reds, but the Reds also just went ice cold.
For the season, the Brewers are 12th in team ERA and 13th in bullpen ERA. That’s OK, but it’s not the dominance that they displayed this weekend, allowing three runs all series with two shutouts.
The Phillies scored 22 runs over their weekend series against the San Diego Padres who are actually seventh in team ERA this year. Bryce Harper is coming alive with an OPS over 1.000 this month and I trust Philadelphia much more in this spot.
I’ll take the Phillies to win Game 1 and do it convincingly.
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