Blue Jays vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Tuesday, May 9 (Trust Nola to lead Phillies to win)

May 3, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27)
May 3, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays start a mid-week series with two pitchers hoping to reach the lofty expectations set ahead of the season.

Aaron Nola has shown flashes of greatness, but it hasn't translated over the course of the full season, sitting at a 4.64 ERA. However, the real concerns in this pitching matchup lie with Blue Jays' right hander Alek Manoah. He has a similar ERA to Nola with a 4.71, but his underlying metrics hint that it can get worse for the right hander.

Can the Phils get a better showing from Nola, who may be pitching better real soon if his underlying metrics are any indication? Let's check out the odds:

Blue Jays vs. Phillies odds, run line and total

Blue Jays vs. Phillies prediction and pick

Manoah is a cause for concern for the Blue Jays. He isn't throwing as hard as he did last season and it's showing. He has an ERA of 4.71 with a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 5.50. He is striking out less batters this season while more than doubling his walk rate, and has been pretty lucky once the ball is in play.

This is an issue against a Phillies team that strikes out at around the league average and is elite at making contact, hitting .266 as a unit, sixth best in baseball.

Now, Nola hasn't been his best this season, but he's shown far more than Manoah. Outside of the first start of the season against the Rangers in which he got chased off the mound in the fourth inning and allowed five earned runs, Nola has pitched past the fifth inning in each game and allowed no more than four runs.

Toronto is also an elite hitting bunch, right behind Philly in terms of batting average at .261, seventh best in baseball, but I think Nola has been far better this season even though he and Manoah have similar surface level numbers.

Give me the Phillies in a projected coin flip with the pitching advantage.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.