As June approaches the Phillies need to get back on track
The Philadelphia Phillies are getting past the point of the season where the "it's early" excuse can keep being used. The club dealt with injuries to major players entering the season and as the season progressed. After splitting the series in Atlanta, the Phillies stand seven games behind the division leading Braves entering a pivotal series in New York against the Mets.
The Phillies have the pieces to be a competitive team in a talented National League East. As June comes and goes, the Phillies need to figure out a few different areas in order to gain ground in the division.
Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner will likely heat up for Phillies
"June Schwarber" should be arriving shortly. Kyle Schwarber has had an all or nothing start to the 2023 season. Through 184 at-bats, Schwarber is hitting just .168, however, he has 13 home runs which is tied for ninth in all of Major League Baseball.
Schwar💣 #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/fgKQ5KKEQR
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) May 29, 2023
The positive news for Phillies' fans is that Schwarber has a track record of heating up in June. Throughout his career the slugger has hit .215 in March and April and .188 in May. As the summer months approach those numbers climb pretty dramatically. In June Schwarber is a career .258 hitter with an OPS of .959.
Schwarber is not known for his batting average, but his OPS will rise as he begins to hit for a higher average in the next month. The Phillies need their left fielder to start hitting more consistently and continue to knock balls out of the park. His run producing ability will help propel the team as they look to make up ground over the summer.
Trea Turner has been disappointing to begin the season. There have been some signs pointing to a potential increase in production from the Phillies' shortstop, however. In the series in Atlanta, Turner hit two RBI doubles to the opposite field. He also hit a game tying home run in the series finale against the Arizona Diamondbacks which led to an eventual walk off win.
Turner— like Schwarber— has typically gotten off to a slower start in his career. As the season progresses, so does Turner's productivity. For his career, Turner's OPS rises over .800 once June comes around.
The Phillies need to get and stay healthy
The Phillies' roster has been riddled with injuries to start the year. Bryce Harper began the season on the injured list and missed the first month and a half. Rhys Hoskins is sidelined for the season due to an ACL tear that he suffered in spring training. His replacement— Darick Hall— was injured in the beginning of April. José Alvarado was placed on the injured list in early May after a dominating start to the season. The club's potential fifth starter Andrew Painter made one spring training appearance before being shut down to heal a ligament in his throwing arm.
The injuries are not the only thing to blame for the Phillies' pedestrian start to the year, but they certainly have not helped. While Hoskins will likely not return this season, Harper, Alvarado, Hall, and perhaps even Painter have or will return to make an impact on the team. Injuries are a natural part of the sport, unfortunately, but good teams can overcome them. To this point in the season, the Phillies have had players such as Kody Clemens step up to fill in for injured players. The bullpen has also done a good job of stepping up in Alvarado's absence.
The Phillies need key players to stay healthy to be a threat in the division. The team has some depth in certain areas in the minor leagues, but other areas are already thin, and the team cannot afford major injuries to those positions.
The fifth spot in the rotation must be settled
The thinnest area on the team is undoubtedly the starting rotation. This is not uniquely a Phillies' problem as many teams around baseball are short on starting pitching depth, but it is up to the Phillies to figure out who they will send to the mound every fifth day.
The Phillies' rotation has struggled in general to begin the season, but there have been some positive signs from pitchers like Zack Wheeler and even Taijuan Walker in their last few starts. Aaron Nola has not been himself, but it is likely he will adjust and even out at some point.
Losing Andrew Painter early on forced the Phillies to use Bailey Falter as their fifth starter to begin the season. Falter had a decent 2022 season but did not have the same success in 2023 and he was optioned to Triple-A earlier in the month of May. The club claimed Dylan Covey off waivers a few weeks ago and he had a solid appearance in Philadelphia against the Diamondbacks but had a rough outing on Sunday night in Atlanta. He is likely not a reliable option in the long-term.
There are not really many enticing options in the minor leagues that would make an impact or are fully ready to pitch in the big leagues. Griff McGarry has made a few rehab appearances after beginning the season on the injured list and has shown that he may be the prospect closest to making his Phillies debut. He is still building up his arm and needs some command consistency, but it would not be surprising if the Phillies gave him a shot if they are unable to find a reliable fifth arm in the rotation.
Griff McGarry bringing the heat early 🔥 pic.twitter.com/u3aaW8MIXk
— Reading Fightin Phils (@ReadingFightins) May 11, 2023
The Phillies are far from being out of the division. A hot streak or two over the summer could help propel them to within a few games of the Braves. They also still have a sizeable number of games remaining against the NL East as they have only played two series against their own division to this point. They will require more consistency and rely on the health of their players to help them get to within reach of a second consecutive postseason appearance.