5 Phillies players who will be X factors down the stretch

Nick Castellanos

It sure wasn’t too long ago when outfielder Nick Castellanos was the talk of the town. After all, he endured what turned out to be a horrendous start to the 2024 season. In his first 35 games, Castellanos batted a dreadful .185 with a .489 OPS, along with just three extra-base hits (one triple and two home runs) and 10 RBI while striking out 37 times in 130 at-bats.

However, that start is a thing of the past as Castellanos has since managed to drastically turn his season completely around. Since then, he has posted a .268 batting average, .798 OPS, along with 52 runs scored, 27 doubles, two triples, 17 home runs and 67 RBI over his next 103 games before Wednesday's game in Toronto. In doing so, Castellanos has become one of the main driving forces behind the Phillies’ offense in recent months, showing exactly why he's a former two-time All-Star and Silver Slugger winner.

With some of his usually-dependable teammates enduring some struggles of their own in recent weeks, namely superstars Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, the Phillies will look to the revitalized Castellanos to significantly help carry the team in the final month of the season.

Just in case there was ever any doubt, he did exactly that already on Sept. 1, coming through with a clutch two-strike, two-out single in the bottom of the 11th inning to help the Phillies get past their arch-rivals, the Atlanta Braves, with a dramatic 3-2 walk-off win.

Austin Hays

In order to have a successful trade deadline, key pieces that were acquired need to start paying dividends when the games matter most. That was probably what the Phillies had in mind when they went out to get Austin Hays from the Baltimore Orioles to solve their outfield situation — rather than some of the more highly-rumored targets at the time. The Phillies believed that Hays could provide the much-needed offensive boost to the lineup, along with providing steady defense in the outfield at the same time.

Since joining the Phillies, Hays has shown some spurts of brilliance in that regard but has yet to break out like how Jorge Soler has done for the Braves or Jazz Chisholm Jr. has for the New York Yankees. Injuries aside, Hays has posted a steady .254 average and .648 OPS, with seven runs scored, five doubles, one home run and five RBI over 19 games played.

Nevertheless, the Phillies certainly hope the best is yet to come, as Hays has proven to be a prolific hitter during the final month of the season in the past. With 66 runs scored, 20 home runs, 67 RBI, and 224 total bases in just 141 games in September/October, it has been by far the most productive month of his career. As a result, it's about time that Hays shows his true value to the team, as the Phillies will hope to see that kind of production from him down the stretch.

José Alvarado

Many may find it surprising to see reliever José Alvarado in this X factor category. After all, he has had a season to forget so far in 2024. Entering the year as perhaps one of the Phillies’ most reliable bullpen arms over the past couple of seasons, Alvarado struggled mightily in his new role as the team’s de facto closer. Even when he was finally removed from the role, his struggles followed him.

On the year, despite converting 13 saves in 16 opportunities along with eight holds, Alvarado has uncharacteristically posted a 1-5 record with a 4.22 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, with 53 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings over 57 appearances. More worrisome is the fact that his strikeout rate has dropped off quite a bit from previous seasons while his hit and home run rates have climbed.

Nevertheless, there is still time for Alvarado to right the ship, as he is now fresh coming off the restricted list recently. September comes just at the right time for Alvarado, as he has shown in the past to post his best numbers during the month for his career.

In his lifetime, he has registered a tidy 2.20 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, with 72 strikeouts in 49 innings pitched over 59 career appearances during the final month of the season. If he can replicate some of those numbers in any sort of fashion this time around, it will go a long way in helping to reestablish his success, as well as the Phillies going forward. It will also help provide some much-needed stability in the Phillies relief corps, which has been in flux for the past few weeks.

Trea Turner

As Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski always emphasizes, you need star players to help win championships. Amidst an All-Star season, shortstop Trea Turner had definitely been doing his part in providing a significant impact for the club when healthy.

In particular, after coming off the IL in late June, Turner had a scorching month of July in which he scored 20 runs and pounded out 10 home runs and 23 RBI, all while batting .292 with a stellar .944 OPS.

However, Turner fell into a major slump in August, batting only .250 with a .637 OPS, along with just 14 runs scored, six doubles, two home runs and 11 RBI. Despite showing signs of potentially breaking out at times, it was never sustainable. To no surprise, the Phillies also ended up scuffling a bit that month as well, going only 15-13 and allowing teams that were chasing them to make up some crucial ground.

But don’t count out Turner just yet, as he is one of the best in the business when it comes to delivering down the stretch. If anyone needed any reminders, just last season he hit close to .300 with a .932 OPS, 21 runs scored, five doubles, seven home runs, 16 RBI and seven stolen bases in just 24 games to close out the season.

With a career September/October batting average of .301 and .883 OPS, along with registering 45 home runs and 136 RBI, which is the most he has of any month in his career, look for Turner to rapidly turn things around and help the Phillies with a dominant and productive final month once again.