5 Phillies who could be the difference between success and failure in 2024

Nick Castellanos

Nick Castellanos is the personification of an all-or-nothing type of hitter, as he is wildly unpredictable in his at-bats throughout a season. After an underwhelming first year with the Phillies in 2022, the right fielder appeared to turn a corner with two solid months out of the first three in 2023.

In April, he had a .308/.368/.505 line with 17 RBI in 107 at-bats. Castellanos' most productive month batting was in June. He had a .351/.387/.567 stat line and 21 RBI in his 97 plate appearances. His solid first half of 2023 culminated in an All-Star Game appearance.

He had a difficult month at the plate in July with a .162/.194/.303 line and 35 strikeouts. He had 11 RBI, the lowest he tallied during a single month — Castellanos finished with the same amount in May of 2022. During the season, Thomson placed him anywhere from second to eighth in the batting order.

Castellanos rode a rollercoaster in the postseason

Castellanos' hitting during the playoffs was a further glimpse of how well and poorly he can perform as a batter. In 13 contests and 47 at-bats, the 31-year-old finished with a slash line of .213/.269/.574 and 14 strikeouts.

During the Divisional series against the Atlanta Braves, Castellanos was arguably Philadelphia's best hitter. After going 0-for-4 in Game 1, he went 7-for-13 with four home runs, and four RBI in the next three contests of the series. He finished with only one strikeout through the four games against Atlanta.

Against the Diamondbacks in the NLCS, Castellanos suddenly became perhaps the Phillies' biggest weakness at the plate. He had 11 of his postseason strikeouts in the seven contests, including four combined in the last two games of the series. His stat line of .391/.440/1.000 at the start of Game 1 dropped to .213/.269/.574 by the conclusion of Game 7.

The past two seasons are an indication that Phillies fans should brace for unpredictability when it comes to Castellanos' performance at the plate. If he is in the midst of a hot streak at the right time, it could help propel Philadelphia to a championship.

Fans have seen how he can contribute to the team's offensive struggles as well. Examples are at the end of their unbelievable playoff run in the final three games of the 2022 World Series in which he went 0-for-11. During the 2023 NLCS, he went 1-for-24. Castellanos needs to be a lot better at the right time for the Phillies to win their first championship since 2008.

The Phillies' closer, whoever it is

Following former closer Craig Kimbrel's rocky one year with the Phillies, Philadelphia's eighth and ninth-inning pitchers have yet to be determined. One of the pitchers may not yet be on the roster. The club is rumored to have an interest in signing free agent reliever Jordan Hicks. The right-hander has the same amount of experience as a closer as José Alvarado, who was their setup reliever and occasional closer.

If Alvarado becomes the Phillies closer, other options currently on the roster to compete for the setup role include Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, and youngster Orion Kerkering.

Soto has extensive experience as a closer with the Detroit Tigers. The left-hander converted 18 of 19 save opportunities in 2021 and 30 of 33 during the 2022 season. He was successful in three of six save situations last year during the regular season for the Phillies.

Phillies need to choose a closer

The Phillies would benefit from having a reliever emerge as their closer this season. Having Brad Lidge as their clear-cut closer in 2008 was significant in Philadelphia winning the World Series that season.

It would be a lot to ask of the reliever to repeat Lidge's perfect season in 2008. Nonetheless, Philadelphia would benefit from having a dominant closer rather than Thomson remaining noncommittal in naming a reliever for the role at the start of the playoffs.

Having the manager decide on a closer-by-committee approach may backfire and prevent the Phillies from winning the Fall Classic this year. It's a huge advantage for a team to have an effective setup reliever and closer combination, especially during the postseason.

They need to figure out who that's going to be and stick with it, barring injury or a complete disaster by whoever is initially in the role. Phillies president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, may wait until the 2024 Trade Deadline to acquire a dominant closer if need be.

Aaron Nola

The franchise's biggest signing, or re-signing in this case, during the offseason has been Aaron Nola. Despite an inconsistent performance overall in 2023, Philadelphia was adamant in making sure the former first-round pick by the organization remained in Phillies' pinstripes presumably for the remainder of his career. The right-hander agreed with the team to a seven-year, $172 million deal on Nov. 19.

Zack Wheeler has emerged as the clear No. 1 ace in the Phillies rotation over the last few years. Nola has developed the reputation of a solid second starter for Philadelphia. The 30-year-old had 12 wins last year, his most since he tallied that same amount in 2019.

He finished with a 4.46 earned run average, the second time in the last three seasons he has finished with an earned run average over four. Disregarding the COVID-shortened 2020 league year, Nola's 202 strikeouts in 2023 were his fewest since 2017 when he finished with 184.

Nola needs to be more than just durable

The Baton Rouge, Louisiana native has finished with 32 starts in each of the last three seasons. Besides 2020, he has made between 32-34 starting appearances every year for the Phillies since 2018. His level of durability can be difficult to find in a starting pitcher, especially one who is a top-two starter.

His starting appearances in three of four postseason games last season heavily factored into the decision by the Phillies front office to re-sign the right-hander. In Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Miami Marlins and Game 1 of the NLCS versus the Diamondbacks, Nola gave up zero earned runs in seven and six innings pitched, respectively. Against the Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS, he had nine strikeouts.

Nola has proven to be a bit unpredictable from year to year and lacks the consistency expected of a No. 1 pitcher in a starting rotation. Despite that, he will play a significant part in whether or not the Phillies win a World Series in 2024.

Philadelphia needs Nola to be pitching at his best, particularly as he did for the majority of last year's playoffs. If not, then the club may fall short again of hosting a parade down Broad Street at the beginning of November.

Trea Turner

Trea Turner's first season with the Phillies represented the definition of volatile. He was underwhelming at the plate and in the field for a good part of 2023. It wasn't until a standing ovation from the loyal Phillies fans during a game on Aug. 4 at Citizens Bank Park helped jumpstart what everyone expected out of the shortstop offensively.

The 30-year-old infielder had a line of .235/.290/.368 before the home game versus the Kansas City Royals at the beginning of August. At the end of the month, his stat line numbers for the season were .260/.312/.439.

Phillies need Turner to put together a full season, including the playoffs

He finished with a .333/.376/.685 line, along with nine home runs and 26 RBI during August. He had a decent September with seven home runs, 16 RBI, and a stat line of .299/.364/.567. He entered the postseason with some positive momentum offensively.

Turner had one hit or more in 10 consecutive playoff games. However, he went 0-for-12 in Games 5 through 7 of the NLCS. When the Phillies lineup came up small collectively, so did the shortstop. For the regular season, he finished with 150 strikeouts, which was the most of his career. His .266 batting average was the lowest since his rookie season in 2015.

The Boynton Beach, Florida native had a rough year defensively as well. Turner's 23 errors were the most of his career. His fielding percentage of .960 was his lowest since 2020. In terms of a 162-game season, he had a .875 percentage at shortstop back in 2015. He committed four errors, another career high, during the 2023 postseason.

Turner was viewed as the missing player that would propel the Phillies to a World Series last year. Unfortunately, his underwhelming first year with Philadelphia has put the spotlight on him entering 2024.

The organization has invested heavily in the shortstop with the massive deal he signed in December 2022. If he struggles again this season, the local and national media and the fanbase will begin to doubt if the club made the right decision in signing the infielder to a long-term, expensive contract.

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