4 reasons to believe in the Phillies despite the poor start

The 2023 season couldn't have gotten off to a worse start for the Philadelphia Phillies. After getting swept in Texas and losing the first game in New York, the Phills didn't even get their first win of the season until their fifth game.

11-12 is not what Phillies fans envisioned after a trip to the World Series last season. We knew Bryce Harper would be out so a blazing start wasn't necessarily expected, but we expected better than this.

At 11-12 the Phillies are closer to the last place Nationals than they are the first place Braves. They've dug themselves a small hole, but a four-game deficit isn't anything too insane, and with three Wild Card spots we know it's impossible to rule the Phillies out. There's no reason to believe this team can't recover from what's been a rocky start.

1) Reason to believe in the Phillies despite the poor start: The two aces haven't been aces yet

The Phillies arguably have two of the top 10-15 starting pitchers in all of baseball. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are arguably the best duo to lead a rotation in the game right now. They're both perenial Cy Young contenders, and there's no reason to expect them to suddenly fall off.

Despite their track record of success, both Nola and Wheeler have gotten off to shaky starts.

Wheeler has a 4.73 ERA through his first five starts. His walk rate is up to 8.6% after being under 6% each season he's been in Philadelphia. The good news is his strikeout rate of 29.1% is right where it was in 2021 when Wheeler was robbed of the Cy Young award.

Wheeler just hasn't been at his best. He hasn't gone more than six innings after being a workhorse in each of the last five seasons. Things just haven't been as crisp for the right-hander. He did pitch fairly well his last time out, allowing three runs in six innings with 11 strikeouts in a victory over Colorado. He had just one bad inning.

Nola has had similar issues. He's sitting on a 5.40 ERA through his first five starts of the season, and has two starts in which he's allowed four runs or more already. Like Wheeler, his walk rate has skyrocketted from 3.6% last season to 7.6% this season. However, unlike Wheeler his strikeout rate has gone way down from 29.1% in 2022 to a career-low 18.6%.

Despite only recording three strikeouts, Nola held the Rockies to three runs over seven innings his last time out. Hopefully this is a sign of what's to come for the veteran right-hander. For him to get the contract he's going to want this offseason, he's going to have to be much better.

These guys haven't been at their best, but they both have track records to suggest they'll turn it around and be the aces we've come accustomed to.

2) Reason to believe in the Phillies despite the poor start: Reinforcements are on the way

He's coming. There hasn't been a more encouraging video surrounding the Phillies than this one released today. Bryce Harper looks awfully good in this video throwing. We won't see him in right field for a while, but number three is targeting an early May return to the Phillies. He'll be the DH to start, but maybe a first base appearance could be coming?

Harper returning as the DH might not be the most ideal, but having that bat in the lineup should help an offense currently tied for 15th in baseball in runs scored. There's no understating the impact Harper has in any lineup.

Harper isn't the only guy on the cusp of returning. Ranger Suarez is getting ready to start his first rehab game in what should be a long assignment in the minors. Harper should be back first, but Suarez might be back sometime in May as well.

We saw the guy Suarez could be in the postseason as he posted a 1.23 ERA in five appearances (three starts). He was the most consistent Phillies pitcher that entire run.

When Suarez returns, they get their number three starter back. The Phillies could either run a six-man rotation or push one of Matt Strahm or Bailey Falter to the bullpen. Either way, the starters will either get more rest or the bullpen gets stronger. I see either option as feasible.

The Phillies won't get Rhys Hoskins back, but the other reinforcements on the cusp of returning should get Phillies fans excited.

4) Reason to believe in the Phillies despite the poor start: J.T. Realmuto hasn't gotten it going yet

Similarly to last season, J.T. Realmuto has gotten off to a slow start to begin the 2023 campaign. He's slashing .247/.281/.429 with two home runs and seven RBI in his first 20 games of the season. The fortunate thing is he's J.T. Realmuto, and there's every reason to believe he's going to turn it around.

Last season he had a .722 OPS with eight home runs in 79 first half games. He then turned it on in the second half and posted a .949 OPS with 14 home runs in 60 games. Coincidentally, the Phillies struggled in the first half before turning it on down the stretch.

When right, Realmuto is the best catcher in the game. He brings it defensively all the time but when he's swinging the bat well, there really is nobody better behind the plate.

Once Realmuto gets going, it'll be even harder to pitch to this Phillies lineup. Realmuto's second half helped catapult him into a top-seven finish in the NL MVP race. Hopefully we won't have to wait until the second half to see his offense finally take off, but there's no reason to believe it won't happen at some poi

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