4 pitchers Dombrowski says could provide valuable depth to Phillies rotation in 2024
Even though the starting rotation is set, the Phillies are still examining their options for pitching depth next season.
The Philadelphia Phillies rotation appears to be set for 2024 at the moment, but the offseason is still young, and a free agent signing or trade could shake things up in an instant. After all, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is still unsigned. We can all dream, right?
But if the season were to start today, the five-man rotation would look very similar to what we got used to last season, with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez, and Cristopher Sánchez all penciled in to toe the rubber for the Phillies to begin 2024.
Injuries are always part of the equation for any baseball team, and you can never rule out a prospect showing all of the signs in Spring Training that they belong with the big club. That being said, who exactly boards the team plane in Clearwater to begin the season in Philadelphia is always subject to change. The best baseball teams have rotation depth.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has identified a few of those options at various points this offseason.
“The depth isn’t really as important until you get to the season, so we’ve got a lot of time until we start, until the end of March,” Dombrowski said at the Winter Meetings, per Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. “But we talked about Covey potentially, let’s see how Abel progresses, we’ve got Nelson, but yeah, ideally, we would continue to add in that regard."
While a few of these guys have seen action with the Phillies before and have potential roles already locked up in 2024, a few are knocking on the door for a chance to make an impression for the 2024 Phillies. Let's take a closer look at the four players who could help the Phillies' rotation next season.
Dylan Covey
Dylan Covey is a guy who is already well known to Philadelphia Phillies fans. Claimed off waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers in May of this past season, the 32-year-old Covey carved out a decent role for himself in the Phillies bullpen over the course of the year. Can we expect more out of Covey in 2024?
In 28 appearances (one start) for the Phillies in 2023, Covey posted a decent ERA of 3.69, a number that stands out considering he has a career ERA of 6.18 over 100 appearances during his five-year MLB career. Used primarily as a starter earlier in his career, it's possible middle relief might be a role that Covey could thrive in going forward.
Likely penciled in for similar work for the Phillies next season, it wouldn't be surprising to see Covey stretched out as a starter during Spring Training. As a season goes on, having spot starters and guys that can protect the bullpen during tough games has its value, and that's the type of pitcher Covey projects to be at this stage of his MLB career following stints with the Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, and two seasons (2021-2022) pitching in China for the Rakuten Monkeys.
Covey has an unispiring career record of 7 wins and 32 losses. so this would be the classic break glass in case of emergency starter the Phillies might need if injuries pile up during the 2024 season.
Let's hope that doesn't happen.
Nick Nelson
Nick Nelson is another pitcher who has seen time with the Philadelphia Phillies. The 28-year-old right-hander spent considerable time with the team in 2022, but spent most of this past season pitching for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Will Nick Nelson have a role with the 2024 Phillies?
Nelson appeared in 47 games (two starts) for the 2022 Phillies, pitching to a record of 3-2 and a 4.85 ERA in 68 2/3 innings while mostly coming out of the bullpen. Curiously lost in the shuffle of bullpen arms during the 2023 season, Nelson was called up to make one start with the big club on Oct. 1 and secured his lone victory in a five-inning appearance.
Nelson spent time at three minor league levels in 2023, and his numbers were overall pretty solid. In 25 games (all starts), Nelson compiled a 7-3 record with a 3.83 ERA in 115 innings pitched. Securing a roster spot with a big league club is never easy, but Nelson's fate might have been sealed when he suffered a left hamstring strain at the end of Spring Training.
With the emergence of Cristopher Sánchez as a fifth starter and the signing of Dylan Covey in May, it's possible Nelson was blocked by a numbers crunch on the 26-man roster. It will be interesting to see what the Phillies want to do with Nelson in 2024. Could he emerge as a reliable bullpen option like Jeff Hoffman? Don't be surprised if Nick Nelson makes a spot start or two next season.
Griff McGarry
Griff McGarry is a top Phillies pitching prospect with a lot to prove in 2024. The 24-year-old is knocking on the door of a major league call-up, and with top prospect Andrew Painter still recovering from Tommy John surgery, McGarry looks likely to begin his season with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
McGarry took a major step back in 2023. In 17 starts at three minor league levels, he posted a record of 1-3, to go along with a 6.00 ERA in 60 innings pitched. Despite the numbers, Dave Dombrowski still has big expectations of the young right-handed pitcher.
“Yes, we’re hopeful that he will be [a starter],” Dombrowski told Coffey at the Winter Meetings. “But we also have to make sure we get him back to where he was before he went to Triple-A. So yes, we still think that we can do that, but I can’t tell you."
McGarry will have to show that he can handle upper minors hitters before he gets his chance at a promotion next season. It will be interesting to see what kind of workload McGarry sees in Spring Training, but it's clear from his 2023 minor league numbers that he has to establish better command and keep his walks down if he hopes to get back on track.
Is 2024 the year McGarry puts it all together and spends time with the Phillies? Let's hope so.
Mick Abel
Mick Abel is the pitching prospect closest to making an impact for the Phillies in 2024. With top pitching prospect Andrew Painter expected to miss significant time rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and fellow prospect Griff McGarry still trying to find consistency facing Triple-A hitters, Abel seems to have the best shot at a call-up next season.
Abel showed promise during his 22 starts for Double-A Reading in 2023. The 22-year-old right-hander pitched to a record of 5-5, with a 4.14 ERA and 126 strikeouts in 108 2/3 innings pitched. In his lone appearance for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Abel tossed 4 2/3 innings, striking out six and allowing two earned runs. A longer look at Triple-A hitters is the likely move for Abel to begin next season, according to Dave Dombrowski.
“Not counting on breaking camp with the club,” Dombrowski said at the Winter Meetings, per MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. “But I've been with young guys who are very talented, and you never can tell when they all of a sudden -- boom -- find it."
Will 2024 be the year Mick Abel makes the jump to the big club? It's very likely — if he can dominate Triple-A hitters and stay healthy. In a farm system that struggled to develop starting pitchers before recent success stories like Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez, the steady development of young arms will signal a promising new direction for the Philadelphia Phillies player development program.
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