3 reasons why the Phillies are still World Series contenders and 2 why they're not
Taking a deep dive on a few reasons why this team has what it takes to make a run and couple reasons why they will fall short.
The Trade Deadline came and went and while plenty of Phillies trade rumors were circulating around baseball, they only made two minor moves to bolster the rotation and bench. The Phillies, more or less, have their 26 guys that they are going to fight for a playoff spot with.
Does this team have what it takes to take a Wild Card spot and make a run to the World Series like last year? Or maybe, they flounder and miss out on the playoffs entirely. At the time of writing, they sit at 58-50 and in the second Wild Card spot just 1.5 games behind the Giants. They have 54 games remaining over the next two months to prove to secure their spot.
Let’s take a look at a few reasons why, despite the underwhelming Trade Deadline, they are a World Series contender and a couple reasons why they are not.
They are a World Series contender:
Reason #1 - The Bullpen
The bullpen has been the best overall group the entire year. Dombrowski made some upgrades over the offseason, so expectations were relatively high, but I don’t think anyone quite envisioned the success they’ve had so far. According to FanGraphs, the Phillies bullpen ranks seventh in the MLB in WAR with a accumulated score of 3.9. Rob Thomson and the coaching staff has clearly put a ton of faiths into the bullpen and they have rewarded that trust with a bullpen team era of 3.73. The team has just 13 blown saves out of 45 opportunities for a 71% save rate which ranks fifth in the league. This is unfamiliar territory for recent Phillies teams as the bullpen has not been a strength in quite some time. Leaning on the likes of Craig Kimbrel, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Dominguez, and Jose Alvarado has worked well and guys like Matt Strahm, Jeff Hoffman and even Yunior Marte has stepped up in a big way to keep leads and to keep games close. The ability to hold leads and to keep games close when behind is a key to winning down the stretch and in the playoffs. It allows the starters to pitch more comfortably knowing they have backup behind them, and it gives the offense a chance to put runs together late in games while the game is still close. The bullpen is the number one reason the Phillies are in the position they are in now and one of the reason they are contending for a championship.
Reason #2 – Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola
When you have two aces at the front of the rotation the way the Phillies do, you can win any playoff series. Evidenced by the 2022 run where the Phillies rode their horses all the way to the World Series. It’s not surprising to say but when Nola and Wheeler are on their game, the team wins. In the nine games won by Nola, he has a 2.69 era, .895 whip, and strikes out 10.3 batters per nine innings. In the seven games he’s lost, his era jumps to 6.48, the whip goes to 1.44 and he strikes out 8.4 per nine. Wheeler’s splits are similar. In eight wins, his era is 2.40, whip of .945 and strikes out 11.7 per nine. In the five losses, the era is 5.02, the whip jumps to 1.395, and the strikeouts drop to 9.7 per nine. The Phillies need Nola and Wheeler to be on their game and it seems like they are rounding into form now.
Reason #3 – The offense will come alive
On paper, the Phillies have one of the deepest lineups in the game. Moving Bohm to the two hole and Turner down to seven and Marsh, the Phillies leader in OPS, batting eighth shows the embarrassment of riches that this team possesses. Up until now, the offense hasn’t quite clicked like everyone has thought it would. Castellanos has scuffled since the second half batting .147/.180/.406, Turner hasn’t been able to figure out his offensive woes, Schwarber continues to bat ~.180, Harper is still rounding into form in the power department, and JT has struggled. That all being said, those big names and big names for a reason. They are all great baseball players who historically have shown why they are the best in the game. If the offense can figure it out and get rolling, this team can be the scariest in the league. The offense has been held up by Bohm, Stott and Marsh and the Phillies are still right in the mix. Just imagine if they can all click at the same time.
They are not a World Series contender:
Reason #1 – The offense will continue to flounder
While, yes, the offense can be dangerous if the big name hitters find their stride, the reality is that they just haven’t stepped up all year. The team ranks seventh in the league with a 24.1% strike out rate, they are middle of the pack in OPS (.733) and batting average (.254), and below league average in runs per game at 4.49. When you see the names in this lineup you may think that the homerun power is a given but it just has not come to fruition this year. They have the 10th lowest amount of homeruns hit with 115 and is surrounded by teams such as the White Sox, Brewers and Athletics. Dombrowski showed faith in the offense by not making major additions to the team that many were expecting but they could surely use a shot of something to get them going. Far too often has the offense failed to convert on opportunities presented to themselves or were able to break a game wide open giving the opposing team more chances. If this team doesn’t make a run, chances are the offense failed.
Reason #2 – The Bench
How often in playoff history has a pinch hitter come in and hit the clutch homerun and the clip lives on forever? The bench of the best teams is a dangerous asset that a manager can turn to in late game situations. Whether it be playing the lefty/righty match up with a power hitter or the defensive replacement, the bench plays a huge role in the success of the team. The Phillies were looking for a right-handed power bat during the trade deadline and it was determined by Dombrowski that none were worth the prospect capital to acquire. They did add Rodolfo Castro to act as the defensive utility infielder who can provide some pop from the right side. Will that be enough and is that a big enough upgrade to give Thomson and the Phillies enough firepower on the bench? Jake Cave and Johan Rojas have played admirably and has come up big recently but can they be depended upon in September, October and November? Time will tell but not upgrading the bench and getting the pop they need can come back to bite them as we come down to the final playoff push.
Overall, this team has what it takes to make a deep run in the playoffs. They currently stand in the second Wild Card spot and have been the second-best team in the league since June 1. They will need every facet of their team to step up as the games get tighter and more important.