3 reasons why the Phillies are still in the running, 2 why they are toast
Despite the fact that they play in one of the harder divisions in all of MLB, there were understandably high expectations for the Philadelphia Phillies coming into the 2023 season. They had just made a run to the World Series and with much of the same core plus the addition of Trea Turner, it was hard not to think of them as one of the favorites in the National League East.
Unfortunately, things haven't exactly gone as planned so far. Despite the pitching staff being as good if not better than advertised, the Phillies are 10 games back in the division and three games out in the wild card race with a negative run differential and somehow being outpaced by the Marlins of all teams so far in 2023.
The Phillies can't control the Braves playing out of their minds and the Marlins defying logic, but it has still required a recent hot streak for Philadelphia to even get above .500 for the season. That recent burst of strong play is certainly encouraging, but it is still fair to wonder and debate if the Phillies are still contenders in 2023 or if they are already toast.
Still in it: The Phillies' rotation is still elite
The best cause for optimism for the Phillies in 2023 is their rotation. Led by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, the Philadelphia rotation is second only to the Minnesota Twins in fWAR from starting pitchers at 9.0 fWAR. As a group, they don't walk many batters (2.56 BB/9) and rank inside the top 10 in all of baseball in strikeout rate at 8.89 K/9.
While Wheeler and Nola garner the most press and rightly so, there is some depth in the rotation beyond those two guys. Ranger Suarez has been very productive since returning from the injured list with a strained elbow. Taijuan Walker hasn't been amazing, but as a number 4/5 type of guy, he has fit the bill reasonably well even if his peripheral stats are less encouraging.
One wild card here is Andrew Painter and his return from the injured list. He is throwing bullpens now and assuming he has no setbacks with his elbow, he has the talent to give the Phillies a rotation that can beat any team and allow the team to make a real run in the second half.
Out of it: The Phillies' offense is a mess
While the news on the pitching side of things has been largely good, the Phillies offense has been a different story. The Phillies' position players have accounted for just 7.5 fWAR in 2023 (19th in the league) with a middle of the pack 98 wRC+ on the season. The defense being mediocre overall hasn't helped anything, either.
A big part of this can be attributed to Bryce Harper missing a chunk of the early portion of the season, but there is more to it than that. Trea Turner has been disappointing so far this season, Rhys Hoskins is likely out for the season with a torn ACL, and Kyle Schwarber has been even more of a "home run or bust" hitter than he usually is.
There is still a chance for the offense to turn things around, but this isn't just one guy struggling. Several guys are going to need to get going for the Phillies to stand any chance.
Still in it: The Phillies' roster is filled with guys who have track records of success
While it is easy to look at the standings and get caught up in the lost opportunities the Phillies have had along the way, it is important to remember that this isn't a roster filled with unproven guys. Philadelphia went out and brought in bona fide stars and while things haven't gone their way this season in several cases, the odds are that these players can figure it out if anyone can.
When he is right, JT Realmuto is among the best hitting catchers in all of baseball. Bryce Harper has Hall of Fame talent and eventually his power is going to return and he is going to be a force to be reckoned with again. Trea Turner is coming off back to back 6+ fWAR seasons and while his wRC+ currently sits at 86, hasn't posted a wRC+ lower than 105 since 2015.
Those are just a few examples, but you get the point. While not every guy that is having a down year is going to come out of it, there is just too much talent and experience on this Phillies roster to not think that better days are coming soon.
Out of it: The Phillies' competition is stiff and they have ceded too much ground early
The Phillies may have all of the potential in the world, but the reality is that they have already ceded a lot of ground to their competition. The Braves are one of the more talented teams in all of baseball and they have been playing like it most of the season. The Marlins certainly don't look at good as Philadelphia on paper, but they win a lot of close games and are clearly on the come up. The one saving grace is that the Mets, after spending all of that money, have been a colossal disappointment so far.
Even if you shift your gaze to the wild card race, the Phillies have problems with how they are positioned. Sure, they are only three games out of a wild card spot, but they are currently competing with a very hot Giants team, the Dodgers who have as much if not more talent than the Phillies on their roster, and the aforementioned Marlins. You also have the Brewers who always seem to find a way to stick around lurking as well.
These teams are legitimately good and while the Phillies may look favored on paper over some of them, the inability to put some distance or even keep pace with them is a head start Philadelphia couldn't afford to give.
Still in it: Last season taught us that the Phillies just need to squeak in because they are built for the postseason
There is one thing that is absolutely true of the Phillies and that is they are built for the postseason. In a short series, the top of the rotation matches up with any team in the league and they have the raw talent and experience on their roster to beat anyone.
So would it be nice to be able to win the division to get some more favorable early round matchups in the postseason? Absolutely. However, it isn't necessarily critical, either. If this Phillies team is close to a wild card spot at the end of the season, they have all the tools they need to close out strong and snag a playoff spot.
After that, well, you saw what they can do last postseason.
More Phillies News from That Ball's Outta Here
manual