3 reasons why the Phillies are still in contention and 1 reason why they are not
The Braves have led the division for the entirety of the season and have looked like the best team in baseball but there is always a chance the Phillies can catch them. Let's take a look at three reasons why the Phillies can win the NL East and one reason why they are too far out of it.
![Milwaukee Brewers v Philadelphia Phillies](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,w_7017,h_3947,x_0,y_0/c_fill,w_752,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/GettyImages/mmsport/6/01h5td9ywc3d4p3jmv14.jpg)
As it stands today, the Phillies sit 10.5 games behind of the Atlanta Braves for first place in the NL East. According to baseball reference, the Braves have a 99.2% chance of winning the division and the Phillies have 0.6% chance.
In the wise words of Lloyd Christmas from the 1994 comedy Dumb and Dumber, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!”
The Braves have been an absolute juggernaut for the first 92 games of the season. They current hold the best record in baseball at 62-33 and they are clicking on all cylinders. They are currently on pace to end the season 106-56 which would put them tied for 15th most wins in a single season all-time.
But the Phillies have been hot on their heals since June 2nd. The Phillies have the second best record in the majors since that date and have been winning at a .722 clip, a 117-win pace. Unfortunately, the best team in that span is the…Atlanta Braves. Winning at a .800 clip, a 130-win pace.
MLB team records since June 2.
— John Foley (@2008Philz) July 18, 2023
The Phillies’ .722 winning % is a 117-win pace. The Braves’ .800 winning % is a 130-win pace. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/cATsDhIpxp
Let’s dive in and look at a few reasons why the Phillies are still in the hunt for the division title and one why they are not.
Reason #1 why they will win the NL East
Let’s first dissect the schedule. The Phillies have 18 games remaining against teams that are currently in a playoff spot (seven against the Braves, three against the Orioles, three against the Giants, two against the Blue Jays and three against the Brewers). The Braves have 23 against current playoff teams (seven against the Phillies, four against the Dodgers, six against the Giants and six against the Brewers). The Phillies are currently 26-18 at home which is a .604 winning percentage. They have 38 games remaining at Citizens Bank Park as opposed to the Braves who have 32 games remaining at home. The Phillies have feasted off teams they have played under .500 going 26-12 and will have to continue to do so while playing the teams above .500 a bit more competitively. Looking at the schedule is never a fool-proof way to determine future performance because teams go on hot and cold steaks all season but the schedule would seem to favor the Phillies
Reason #2 why they will win the NL East
As the trade deadline approaches, the Phillies will likely add a piece or two to their current roster. Dombrowski is not one to sit a trade deadline out and with the Phillies square in the middle of a playoff push, he will surely look to add. While the Braves, too, have the ability to add pieces, the Phillies are more likely to add a bonafide difference maker like a top-end starter, a power hitting left fielder, or a first basemen. The Braves simply have a built-out roster with not many major holes to fill. Sure, there is room for them to upgrade, but Braves have historically added on the edges. The Phillies are also still getting healthy and will be getting key players back in the next coming weeks to add to a team that, despite their absence, have been playing good baseball. At the end of the day, the teams that have the most talent and players that perform at a high-level, come out on top.
Reason #3 why they will win the NL East
The Phillies and the Braves still play seven more times head-to-head before the season concludes. There is only so much scoreboard watching and hoping you can do for other teams to beat the teams that are ahead of you in the standings. Seven games gives a lot of opportunities gain ground in the standings and the Phils will need to capitalize on those opportunities. Yes, the Braves have been the best team in the league, but since June 2nd, the Phillies have been the second best team. As noted intro, the Braves have been on a 130-win pace since June 2nd. That is unsustainable and will likely come back down to earth in the coming weeks. The Phillies, while also on a high win pace, is a more reasonable pace and could be more sustainable. Simply having “water find it’s level” is reason enough that the Braves will cool off. Slumps happen and the Braves really haven’t had any yet. It’s hard to not also mention that in last years playoffs, the Braves were seen as the run away favorite in the NLDS against the Phillies but we all know how that turned out. The Phillies have the experience and the confidence to stand up to this Braves powerhouse team. They won’t be a team that backs down and is satisfied with just a Wild Card spot. Their eyes are on the division and the Phillies won’t go quietly.
Reason #1 why they won’t win the NL East
This one is plain and simple. The Braves hold a 10.5 game lead. The largest comebacks in the history of MLB in the 21st century are the 2012 Athletics coming back from 13 games, 2006 Twins coming back from 12.5 games and 2014 Dodgers coming back from 10 games. So, it has happened before, but just a few examples over the 23 years does not give off a ton of confidence that this can happen. The other point here is that the Braves are simply one of the three best teams in the league. From game one of the season, they have been the most consistent team with the offense that just doesn't quit. From the lead off spot to the nine hole hitter, they send dangerous batters to the plate that can deliver back breaking homeruns or just pass the baton to the next guy. They are on pace to win 106 games for a reason and up to this point they have not showed signs of slowing down.
When it comes down to it, I am sure the Phillies would take a playoff berth either from winning the division or taking one of the three wild card spots. The Phillies haven't won the division since 2011 and the Braves have won the last five dating back to 2018. It would be nice to see the Phillies regain their reign at the top of the division and take down the big, bad Braves.