3 reasons the Phillies will clinch the NLDS tonight
The Phillies have one shot to clinch the NLDS at home and need to take advantage.
![Division Series - Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies - Game Three](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,w_5575,h_3135,x_0,y_97/c_fill,w_752,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/GettyImages/mmsport/6/01hcjsj8we1a2bwd6j7b.jpg)
As Game 4 of the NLDS draws near, most fans probably aren't even over the excitement of a wild Game 3 win that put the Philadelphia Phillies up 2-1 over the Atlanta Braves.
Now, the Phillies have a chance to punch their ticket to the NL Championship Series for the second straight year. Winning elimination games is always more challenging, no matter what the sport and the Phillies are in for a tough battle tonight against the best the Braves have to offer.
With Spencer Strider taking the hill for the visitors, the Phillies look to be the underdog despite plenty of factors in their favor.
Here are three reasons we think the Phillies will clinch the NLDS tonight.
Citizens Bank Park
There's home-field advantage, and then there's Citizens Bank Park home-field advantage.
At this point, it almost goes without saying. Citizens Bank Park, or rather the throngs of rabid Phillies fans who fill the stands, gives the home team a huge advantage. With a 25-11 postseason record at The Bank, the Phillies continue to build on their best all-time postseason winning percentage (min. 20 games played) which is now up to .694.
The home-field advantage was more than evident on Wednesday night when all 45,798 Phanatics in attendance blew the figurative roof off the ballpark as soon as the ball left Bryce Harper's bat in the third inning.
NO COMMENTARY BRYCE HARPER#RedOctober | #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/T8MArpnXmC
β The Liberty Line (@LibertyLinePHL) October 11, 2023
From that point on, the joint was jumping as the Phillies bats piled on and erased all memories of their Game 2 collapse.
It would be foolish to expect anything less from the Citizens Bank Park crowd for tonight's crucial Game 4 matchup.
Bryce Harper is, well, Bryce Harper
You may have heard a thing or two about Bryce Harper over the past 24 hours. After his epic Game 3 performance, you would've had to have your head under a rock to not see all the headlines he made both during and following the game.
Playoff Harper is a thing, a very real thing.
Bryce Harper in 22 playoff games with Phillies last 2 years π₯π₯
β John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) October 12, 2023
9 HRs - leads baseball
28 hits - leads baseball
18 RBI - 2nd Yordan Alvarez
.350 - 2nd behind Trea Turner
Only Jayson Werth and Chase Utley have more homers in Phillies playoff history https://t.co/mCgRnmd1h8
With a .282 batting average, a 1.010 OPS, 14 home runs and 28 RBI in 41 career playoff games, he knows how to bring it at the most critical times, even without getting any extra motivation from opposing players. Now that the Braves have woken him up, Harper is focused more than ever on his mission to get that elusive World Series ring and bring a championship to Philadelphia.
But first things first, he'll have to help his team get past the 104-win Braves.
Spencer Strider is on short rest
On the surface, having Spencer Strider on the mound for the Braves looks daunting. After all, he did strike out 281 batters this year, and put out a solid effort in a losing cause in Game 1. In that affair, he went seven innings, allowing two runs, only one of which was earned, and struck out eight Phillies.
But what also happened that game?
Harper (yes, that guy again) hit the hardest ball ever off of the Braves starter, crushing a 115.3 mph home run.
There's also the fact that Strider will take the ball tonight on short rest. Why is that a big deal? Well, as Dan Roche of NBC Sports Philadelphia made it known, Strider hasn't been as Strider-y on short rest this season.
In eight games on short rest, the 24-year-old has a 5.56 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and a .744 OPS against. On regular rest, he pitched to a 3.33 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP and a .597 OPS.
Braves SP Spencer Strider will be on 4 daysβ rest tonight.
β πππ§ ππ¨ππ‘π (@RochesRWinners) October 12, 2023
With 4 daysβ rest this season (8 GS):
5.56 ERA, .744 Opp. OPS, 1.214 WHIP
With 5+ daysβ rest (24 GS):
3.33 ERA, .597 OPS, 1.056 WHIP
pic.twitter.com/pZ4Mp2Iznu
And finally, we dive back in time to a year ago in the NLDS when Strider made his lone playoff start at Citizens Bank Park. If you don't remember what happened, the Phillies lit him up in the third inning, a frame he never made it out of.
They ended up scoring six in the inning, five on three hits off of Strider, including a monster home run off the bat of Rhys Hoskins.
The last time Spencer Strider pitched in a playoff game at Citizens Bank Park, almost exactly one year ago (10/14/22):
β SPORTSRADIO 94WIP (@SportsRadioWIP) October 12, 2023
2.1 IP
5 ER
1 colossal HR
Phils won 9-1
Itβs gonna be loud tonight.
π£οΈ βStriiii-derrrr.β pic.twitter.com/v6bEC9oCVA
Here's hoping that history repeats itself.