3 Phillies prospects who should not be traded and 2 who should
With the Phillies likely buying at the trade deadline, some of their prospects might be on the move
The 2023 season has been a strange one for the Philadelphia Phillies. Yet another slow start has been mostly wiped away with better play recently, but the Phillies still find themselves 12.5 games back in the NL East, sitting on a record of 44-39 entering play on Independence Day.
Despite the sizable division gap, the Phillies being just 1.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race and having a roster as talented as this one makes them obvious buyers at the deadline. Whether this team can win another pennant remains to be seen, but as we learned from last season, anything can happen.
With the Phillies in buying mode, expect prospects to be on the table. We saw Logan O'Hoppe get moved last season, and there's a good chance we see more legitimate prospects moved this time around. While the Phillies should absolutely be selling off prospects, not everyone should be up for grabs.
Phillies prospect Andrew Painter should not be moved at the trade deadline
This feels rather obvious, but Andrew Painter should not be traded at this year's deadline. The prized pitching prospect is working his way back from an injury suffered in Spring Training which has derailed his season, and is finally getting closer to that elusive rehab assignment.
Painter is not only the top prospect in the Phillies system, he's a top-ten prospect overall according to MLB Pipeline. He's the second-best pitching prospect on this list only behind Bobby Miller of the Dodgers who's soon to graduate prospect status.
It felt like the 20-year-old phenom had a legitimate shot at an Opening Day rotation spot before suffering the injury, and if all goes well in his build up, that fifth starter spot that has plagued the Phillies all season could go to Painter.
Whether he's good to go this season or not, he's simply too talented to give away at this point in a trade. The Phillies already have a loaded lineup, they've got two established studs anchoring the rotation even if they haven't pitched like it this season, I don't think there will even be anything out there that the Phillies should move him for.
Keep your stud and watch him lead this rotation for years to come. It could potentially start down the stretch.
Phillies prospect Griff McGarry should be available at the trade deadline
Three of the Phillies top four prospects are starting pitchers which is a great sign for the future of this club. With Aaron Nola approaching free agency this offseason and Zack Wheeler not far behind, who knows what the pitching staff will look like. A lot might be decided with what they do with the prospects themselves.
Painter is the alpha of the pitching prospects, and Mick Abel is considered the second best. While Griff McGarry might not be on the level of Painter or Abel, he's no slouch. Teams will definitely be calling if he is indeed made available.
McGarry is a really talented right-hander who missed the first month of the season due to an oblique injury but he's been healthy since and has pitched really well for the most part.
McGarry has a 3.99 ERA in nine starts and 29.1 innings pitched this season split between Single-A and Double-A. The ERA is inflated from one bad outing which saw him give up seven runs (six earned) in four innings of work. He's allowed two runs or fewer in each of his eight other starts.
McGarry hasn't gone very deep as he's maxed out at five innings and 84 pitches, but he strikes out plenty and has only given up three home runs.
Teams will always be looking for pitching, so McGarry can net the Phillies a really solid player if they do indeed decide to move him.
Phillies prospect Mick Abel should not be moved at the trade deadline
Mick Abel's season has not gone quite as smoothly as fans hoped it would, but the talent is too overwhelming to ignore.
This season, Abel has posted a 4.75 ERA in 13 starts and 60.2 innings pitched. He's struck out 70 which is a really good number, but 35 walks is a number that must be improved upon for him to make it to the next level. His 5.2 BB/9 is substantially worse than his improved 4.0 BB/9 from last season.
Abel throws hard, averaging in the mid-90's with his fastball and he's armed with a devastating slider that should be a great finishing pitch for him when he does make the jump to the majors. While we don't know if or when Painter will get to the majors, if Abel does improve his command I wouldn't be shocked to see him debut down the stretch if the Phillies need an arm.
He doesn't have the superstar potential that Painter has, but Mick Abel projects as a guy who can be an important piece in a big league rotation. He was a first round pick for a reason, and he's only going to get better. Remember, he's only 21 years old.
The Phillies might not need Painter or Abel this season, but with Nola and Wheeler having uncertain futures, they'll be needed in the not-too-distant future. It'd be foolish to move them when you have other prospects to move.
Phillies prospect Hao-Yu Lee should be available at the trade deadline
The Phillies are a team trying to win now, which means prospects are available to upgrade the current roster. Guys like Painter or Abel are harder to move because they're closer to the majors. A guy who looks like he might be a really solid player but is still far away is Hao-Yu Lee.
The Phillies signed Lee in June of 2021 at a young age of 18 coming out of Taiwan and he's impressed ever since he joined the fold. He's risen up to fifth on the Phillies prospect list and is their highest-ranking infielder.
This season in A+ Jersey Shore, Lee is slashing .281/.371/.371 with two home runs and 18 RBI. He's tacked on 11 stolen bases in 13 tries.
Lee looks like a guy who won't hit for much power, but should provide tons of contact and speed while playing solid defense in the middle infield. While these players can certainly be valuable, a player like Lee who won't factor into the equation for years without crazy raw potential can be moved.
It's never easy giving up a prospect in a trade, but trading a guy like Lee, a player without those crazy tools that the mega-prospects have to help this team win now feels like something that won't come back to haunt them. Especially when he won't even be ready for a couple of years at best.
Phillies prospect Justin Crawford should not be moved at the trade deadline
Justin Crawford is the top position player prospect in the Phillies system and it's very easy to see why. The 2022 first round pick has been outstanding in his first full season in the Phillies system, and it's easy to sense the impact player he has the chance to become.
While Crawford doesn't have much power, it's easy to tell who his father is. Carl Crawford stole as many as 60 bases in a Major League season and led the American League in stolen bases four times. In Justin Crawford's first full season, he's swiped 33 bags already in just 49 games played. Sure, Single-A obviously isn't the same as the majors, but 33 steals in 49 games is pretty absurd.
Crawford is slashing .339/.388/.451 on the season. He doesn't have a home run, but he's hit 10 doubles and six triples. He's only 19, once he fills out his body a bit more some power could come along, but it doesn't even really have to.
Crawford could project as a leadoff type of hitter who can get on base and cause havoc in front of Bryce Harper for years. His athleticism allows him to cover an absurd amount of ground and play a really solid center field.
Crawford is much more moveable to me than guys like Painter and Abel who fill holes and are closer to the bigs, but I do think the Phillies have something special here.
He could be ready to come up in just a couple of years and plug right into center field. Lee doesn't have quite the game changing speed or bat-to-ball skills that Justin Crawford has.
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