3 Phillies predicted to improve, 3 to regress in Steamer's 2024 projections

During the 2023 MLB season, the Philadelphia Phillies had quite a few of their players who had career years, posting some impressive numbers in the process. At the same time, there were also some players who struggled quite a bit and will want to put last season behind them and come back stronger and better in 2024.

So who will fall back down to earth, and how many will bounce back in a big way?

FanGraphs has recently come out with the annual Steamer projections for 2024, so we'll look at three Phillies players predicted to improve next season and three who may regress after a stellar 2023 season.

3 Phillies projected to improve in 2024

Bryce Harper

Despite all his heroics down the stretch and in the playoffs, many may have forgotten that Bryce Harper got off to a slow start in 2023 after coming off Tommy John surgery. That much was expected, given he came back from the procedure way earlier than planned, to the surprise of many of the Phillies' faithful, and probably Harper himself. However, he still managed to put up solid numbers across the board by the season’s end.

Given Harper’s tremendous track record, there’s no doubt he'll bounce back in a big way in 2024, and that is exactly what the Steamer projections show. His home run total will rise from 21 to 30, his RBI from 72 to 97, and his WAR from 3.3 to 4.0.

Surprisingly, his batting average will take a little hit, falling from .293 to .283, but if the Phillies get the dominant, full-fledged, run-producing Harper back in 2024, nobody will be complaining.

Aaron Nola

Phillies ace Aaron Nola actually had a somewhat down season in 2023 compared to his usual standards. For someone who has constantly maintained an ERA below four for most of his career, he posted an uncharacteristic 4.46 ERA last season while giving up a career-high 32 home runs in the process. At least he still put together a solid 12-9 winning record, but he certainly didn't display his usual dominance.

Now fresh off his recent signing with the Phillies, Nola will certainly be pumped up for the 2024 season and want to show the ballclub his worth. Steamer's projections seem to agree with that notion as they predict his ERA to revert back closer to his career average with a solid 3.80 ERA and his home run total to decrease back down to 28.

The Phillies will look to their ace to help carry the team to their third consecutive postseason berth in 2024.

Gregory Soto

After being acquired in the 2022-23 offseason from the Detroit Tigers, Gregory Soto was supposed to be part of the Phillies’ dominant four in the bullpen along with José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez, and Craig Kimbrel. However, Soto often struggled with control and command during the 2023 season. As a result, he was less trusted in high-leverage situations, limiting his overall effectiveness and usage in the end.

With one season under his belt, Steamer projects greater optimism for Soto in 2024, as his ERA is set to improve by an entire run, going from 4.62 to 3.60. In addition, his left-on-base percentage will increase drastically from 59.1 percent to 75.2 percent, keeping more inherited runners from scoring as a result.

Some of his control worries may still be present, with a WHIP going up to around 1.29, but at least he will be more successful in doing the job he's supposed to do: preventing runs from scoring.

3 Phillies projected to regress in 2024

Nick Castellanos

Nick Castellanos put together a strong season with the Phillies in 2023, setting career highs in RBI with 106 and stolen bases with 11. At the same time, he maintained a solid .272 batting average, smashing 29 home runs in the process. More importantly, he was the driving force behind the Phillies’ offensive dominance in their NLDS series win against the Atlanta Braves.

However, many also witnessed Castellanos’ streakiness that reared its head multiple times during his impressive 2023 season. In particular, in the playoffs, he followed his spectacular NLDS showing with a complete dud of a performance during the NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

As a result, Steamer's projections believe that his streakiness won’t help him maintain his 2023 numbers for 2024, as his home runs will drop to 24, his RBI to 90, his stolen bases to seven, and his batting average to .260. On the bright side, with Castellanos often prone to the strikeout last season, at least his strikeout rate is set to improve from 27.6 percent to 24.9 percent.

José Alvarado

José Alvarado was the Phillies’ best reliever in 2023, posting a career-best 1.74 ERA with 10 saves, along with a 1.16 WHIP and a 37.2 percent strikeout rate. He played a key role in helping the Phillies reach the postseason for a second consecutive year, including bailing out team closer Craig Kimbrel down the stretch when he began to falter.

But in 2024, it looks like Steamer projects that Alvarado will regress quite a bit following his stellar 2023 season. His ERA will balloon above three to 3.02, he will give up a career-high six home runs, and his strikeout rate will fall to 31.5 percent.

This could be attributed to the fact that Steamer also predicts Alvarado to take over the full-time closer’s role for the Phillies. With the added pressure and responsibility of finishing off ballgames on a permanent basis for the first time in his career, it could eventually get to him before he stabilizes in the role. On the good side, they also believe he will be successful in the end and amass 23 saves in total.