3 Phillies projected to regress in 2024
Nick Castellanos put together a strong season with the Phillies in 2023, setting career highs in RBI with 106 and stolen bases with 11. At the same time, he maintained a solid .272 batting average, smashing 29 home runs in the process. More importantly, he was the driving force behind the Phillies’ offensive dominance in their NLDS series win against the Atlanta Braves.
However, many also witnessed Castellanos’ streakiness that reared its head multiple times during his impressive 2023 season. In particular, in the playoffs, he followed his spectacular NLDS showing with a complete dud of a performance during the NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
As a result, Steamer's projections believe that his streakiness won’t help him maintain his 2023 numbers for 2024, as his home runs will drop to 24, his RBI to 90, his stolen bases to seven, and his batting average to .260. On the bright side, with Castellanos often prone to the strikeout last season, at least his strikeout rate is set to improve from 27.6 percent to 24.9 percent.
José Alvarado was the Phillies’ best reliever in 2023, posting a career-best 1.74 ERA with 10 saves, along with a 1.16 WHIP and a 37.2 percent strikeout rate. He played a key role in helping the Phillies reach the postseason for a second consecutive year, including bailing out team closer Craig Kimbrel down the stretch when he began to falter.
But in 2024, it looks like Steamer projects that Alvarado will regress quite a bit following his stellar 2023 season. His ERA will balloon above three to 3.02, he will give up a career-high six home runs, and his strikeout rate will fall to 31.5 percent.
This could be attributed to the fact that Steamer also predicts Alvarado to take over the full-time closer’s role for the Phillies. With the added pressure and responsibility of finishing off ballgames on a permanent basis for the first time in his career, it could eventually get to him before he stabilizes in the role. On the good side, they also believe he will be successful in the end and amass 23 saves in total.