3 Phillies predicted to improve, 3 to regress in Steamer's 2024 projections

Aaron Nola

Phillies ace Aaron Nola actually had a somewhat down season in 2023 compared to his usual standards. For someone who has constantly maintained an ERA below four for most of his career, he posted an uncharacteristic 4.46 ERA last season while giving up a career-high 32 home runs in the process. At least he still put together a solid 12-9 winning record, but he certainly didn't display his usual dominance.

Now fresh off his recent signing with the Phillies, Nola will certainly be pumped up for the 2024 season and want to show the ballclub his worth. Steamer's projections seem to agree with that notion as they predict his ERA to revert back closer to his career average with a solid 3.80 ERA and his home run total to decrease back down to 28.

The Phillies will look to their ace to help carry the team to their third consecutive postseason berth in 2024.

Gregory Soto

After being acquired in the 2022-23 offseason from the Detroit Tigers, Gregory Soto was supposed to be part of the Phillies’ dominant four in the bullpen along with José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez, and Craig Kimbrel. However, Soto often struggled with control and command during the 2023 season. As a result, he was less trusted in high-leverage situations, limiting his overall effectiveness and usage in the end.

With one season under his belt, Steamer projects greater optimism for Soto in 2024, as his ERA is set to improve by an entire run, going from 4.62 to 3.60. In addition, his left-on-base percentage will increase drastically from 59.1 percent to 75.2 percent, keeping more inherited runners from scoring as a result.

Some of his control worries may still be present, with a WHIP going up to around 1.29, but at least he will be more successful in doing the job he's supposed to do: preventing runs from scoring.