3 overreactions from the first two weeks of the Phillies' season
It's easy to overreact to the first two weeks of the Phillies' six-month-long season.
Following the first two weeks of the season, there is much to still be determined with the 2024 Philadelphia Phillies. Can they keep up with the Atlanta Braves for the division lead in the early going, unlike last year?
Through 16 contests, Philadelphia is 8-8 and trails the Braves for first in the NL East by 2.0 games. After going 2-4 through their first six contests, the Phillies have gone 6-4 in their following 10 games.
The Phillies are not among the league leaders in offense as their .234 team batting average trails Atlanta by a significant amount who is hitting .301 as a club through the first two weeks of the season. Philadelphia's total of 55 RBI is in the bottom third of the league as well. Their 11 doubles is last in the league, but their 58 walks rank eighth. They tend to get a lot of their offensive production from home runs.
The pitching staff sits 14th in the league with a 3.88 ERA while their 156 strikeouts is among the best. Despite Citizens Bank Park being friendly to hitters, they have allowed 15 home runs which is tied for seventh-best.
Even though the 2024 season is only two weeks in, fans will have more than their fair share of overreactions. Here are three overreactions from the first two weeks of the Phillies season.
Brandon Marsh is the Phillies' best hitter
Marsh has emerged this season as one of the Phillies' best hitters. In 15 games, he’s second on the team with nine RBI in addition to being second with 15 hits. His four home runs lead Philadelphia, as does his .318 batting average and .958 OPS.
Marshy comin' thru ☝️ pic.twitter.com/rJbo7zNQLP
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) April 10, 2024
The only flaws in his game at the plate are his struggles versus left-handed pitching. Marsh has a line of .214/.250/.286 and a .536 OPS versus left-handed throwers. Against right-handed pitchers, he has a .353/.371/.765 slash line with an OPS of 1.136. He also is tied with Kyle Schwarber with 20 strikeouts, the most on the club.
Thomson has elected to not play Marsh against left-handed starters. If he can improve versus left-handed pitching, that will make him one of the Phillies' best overall hitters at the current pace he is on. He represents Philadelphia's best hitter in the bottom third of the lineup.
Nick Castellanos is the Phillies' worst hitter
After not having the statistical year fans were expecting of him in his first year with Philadelphia in 2022, Nick Castellanos had a very good first month of the 2023 season with a .308 batting average, a .368 on-base percentage, and a .505 slugging percentage last season. The right-fielder had nine doubles, four home runs, and 17 RBI during April.
He cooled off a bit with a .265/.303/.392 slash line in May before having an exceptional offensive month during June. Castellanos had a .351/.387/.567 line, along with six doubles, five home runs, and 21 RBI. He represented the Phillies in the All-Star Game due to his solid first three months of 2023.
So far during the first two weeks of 2024, there are major concerns that Castellanos is continuing to regress. His bad play during the National League Championship Series last year against the Arizona Diamondbacks was disappointing, considering how well he did during the Division Series against the Braves.
Nick Castellanos has really struggled to start this season batting just 160. He has struck out 14 times. He was booed last night by Phillies fans. He is trying to be in a good place and be happy and he feels he is getting close. https://t.co/ZMOzD5CoWk
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) April 13, 2024
The Hialeah, Florida native had a slash line of .190/.266/.190 with an OPS of .456. Manager Rob Thomson should keep Castellanos at the bottom of the batting order, especially with a healthy roster. Barring games when several other regular starters are given a day off, Thomson should place him anywhere from sixth through eighth in the lineup.
The 32-year-old has demonstrated during his tenure with Philadelphia that he is far too inconsistent to be counted on at the top or the middle of the lineup regularly. He will likely not make the All-Star Game this year unless he rebounds in a big way and hits exceptionally from mid-April through May and June. Currently, that doesn't seem to be doable.
More importantly, can Castellanos turn things around to help the Phillies win a World Series? Also, is the organization stuck with his contract? If they were to try to trade him, what would they get in return? It doesn't appear like it would be very much. His contract runs through 2026, and the remainder of his time in Philly won't go well if he keeps underachieving.
On the bright side, Castellanos did have the game-winning RBI on a single in the bottom of the ninth inning, giving the Phillies a 4-3 win against the Pirates on Saturday. Perhaps an adrenaline-fueled moment like that will break him out of his offensive funk through the first two weeks of the season.
The Phillies still have no chance of winning the NL East
The Atlanta Braves suffered a devastating injury, with ace Spencer Strider declared out for the remainder of the season after undergoing UCL internal brace surgery on his right throwing arm. Their pitching staff suffered a serious setback on paper, and his absence from the starting rotation will be felt for the rest of the year.
Will the Braves regress due to Strider's absence? Can the rest of the starting rotation remain healthy and productive? There are still plenty of talented pitchers, including Chris Sale, Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Reynaldo López.
The club also has youngsters in the minors, including Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver, whom the team may turn to if López is moved to the bullpen. Will Atlanta make a trade for a starting pitcher by the trading deadline? If they do, that could make their rotation better in Strider's absence.
Philadelphia has lacked consistency during April and May over the last two seasons. Their average to below-average play to begin 2022 and 2023 has put them at a disadvantage in competing for the division. The Phillies are capable of winning the NL East, but will they win in 2024?
Winning the division is only part of a team's achievement if they win the World Series. More importantly, as a Wild Card team, Philadelphia has defeated Atlanta in the NLDS the previous two years. Wild Card teams have won the World Series plenty of times — the Phillies came within two wins of doing so versus the Houston Astros in 2022, entering the postseason as the sixth seed in the National League.
The Braves also possess one of the best-hitting combinations in the majors at the one through five spots in their batting order. A lineup consisting of Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna is as good as it gets.
Atlanta should be in good standing this season, despite the loss of Strider. The bullpen features one of the better closers in the game, Raisel Iglesias, and solid relievers in A.J. Minter, Joe Jiménez, Tyler Matzek, and López if he returns to the bullpen. The lineup is one of the best in baseball, so until proven otherwise, the Braves will still be the favorites to win the NL East and not the Phillies.
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