3 agonizing free-agent destinations for Aaron Nola that would haunt Phillies fans
If the Phillies aren't able to re-sign Nola, here are a few landing spots that could prove to be trouble for Philadelphia.
MLB free agency is underway, and the Philadelphia Phillies have some maneuvering to do if they want to shore up their starting rotation and make sure the team is primed for another postseason run in 2024. It all starts with one big decision.
After Aaron Nola was the only Phillies player to be extended a qualifying offer ahead of the deadline, the belief is that he will decline the offer.
Looking at his stats across nine years with the Phillies, it's easy to understand why Nola is in demand on the free-agent market. He has a record of 90-71, with a 3.72 ERA, 1.129 WHIP, and 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. In those nine years, he has been on the mound for 1,422 innings, fifth-most for any starting pitcher during that same stretch. From 2015 through 2023, he also had the sixth-highest WAR at 33.9, according to FanGraphs.
In the regular season during 2023, the right-handed pitcher went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA, 45 walks, and 202 strikeouts in 193 2/3 innings. He was stellar in the postseason, going 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA in four starts. While it wasn't all sunshine for Nola in 2023 — he gave up a career-high 32 home runs — he continued to be a workhorse as he started 32 games for the third straight year.
Nola has until 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 14 to decide about the $20.325 million qualifying offer. Assuming he packs his bags and leaves the team he has called home for the past nine years, let's take a look at a few destinations that could come back to haunt the Phillies.
NEXT: A division rival looking to add top-end starting pitching
New York Mets
The New York Mets appear to be aiming for bigger things in free agency — namely Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. However, if they swing and miss on both of those Japanese pitchers, they could turn their sights within the division for starting pitching, and Nola could be an enticing option.
Zachary Rymer of Bleacher Report has the Mets at No. 7 on his list of top spots for Nola.
After throwing money at the wall last year to the tune of a league-high $343.6 million payroll, per Spotrac, the team unraveled at the trade deadline, sending aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander packing. With both starters gone, the team is now searching for a solid top-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Kodai Senga.
In addition to losing Scherzer and Verlander during the season, Carlos Carrasco is a free agent and David Peterson had hip surgery and will miss part of 2024, meaning starting pitching help should be prioritized by the team.
While the Mets haven't been consistently competitive in years, they won 101 games and made the playoffs in 2022. Coupled with Mets owner Steve Cohen's willingness to spend big, it's not too far-fetched to expect the Mets will return to postseason contention in 2024. After a 75-87 record and a fourth-place finish in the NL East, the Mets will be looking to turn things around.
It's no secret there's no love lost between Phillies and Mets fans. And that rivalry is felt by the players. After clinching against Atlanta to advance to the National League Championship Series, backup catcher Garrett Stubbs and teammates had no hesitation making their feelings known in the clubhouse:
In the clubhouse celebration following their NLDS victory over the Braves last night, the Phillies had a chant that involved the Mets pic.twitter.com/dBEiBDcl8M
— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) October 13, 2023
In 26 starts against the Mets in his career, Nola has a 9-8 record and 3.40 ERA with 190 strikeouts and 48 walks in 150 2/3 innings. The right-hander can give the team innings and save the bullpen. In 2023, the Mets only had one starter throw more than 150 innings (Senga, 166 1/3). While their starters had a middle-of-the-pack 4.20 ERA for the year, the bullpen had a 4.45 ERA, good for 22nd in the league, per FanGraphs.
The Mets and Phillies will play each other 13 times in 2024. Seven of those games will be played in September when the season and a trip to the postseason could be on the line.
NEXT: A potential playoff opponent could haunt the Phillies' World Series aspirations
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers finished 2023 with the second-best record in the National League, putting up a mark of 100-62.
In the regular season, the Dodgers' starting rotation finished with an ERA of 4.57, 20th-worst in MLB, according to FanGraphs. In the postseason, L.A.'s starters faltered in a big way. Of the 12 playoff teams, they came in last in ERA (25.07), FIP (18.26) and WHIP (4.07). According to FanGraphs, they also came in last in strikeout percentage at 6.1 and allowed opposing teams to hit .533 against them.
In his career, Nola has a 5-3 record with a 3.70 ERA in the postseason with 50 strikeouts in 48 2/3 innings. In the 2023 playoffs alone, the 30-year-old put up an impressive 2.35 ERA, holding opponents to a .214 average and striking out 23 across 23 innings on his way to a 3-1 record.
Right now, the Dodgers only have $108.8 million committed to the 2024 payroll, according to Spotrac. Heading into next season, they could be missing some pitchers, including Clayton Kershaw and Lance Lynn.
There's no doubt the Dodgers will be targeting starting pitchers in free agency, but the Phillies might be able to avoid seeing Nola in a Dodgers uniform without much action on their end.
Ohtani is the prized, two-way free agent this offseason, even if he won't be able to pitch in 2024 after having surgery on his right elbow on Aug. 23. The expectation around the league is that the Dodgers are willing to go all-in for the 29-year-old, who is likely to get offered the biggest contract in the history of the league. If they miss out on Ohtani, though, their attention could shift to Nola.
Since coming into the league in 2015, Nolas has only faced the Dodgers nine times, posting a 2-1 record with a 4.42 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 53 innings.
In 2024, the Phillies and Dodgers will face off six times, with all of the games coming in July and August.
In the past two years when the Phillies were in the playoffs, the Dodgers lost in the National League Division Series, escaping any potential postseason matchups against Philadelphia. Overall, though, Los Angeles has made the playoffs for 11 straight years, winning the World Series in 2020.
That means there's a very good chance that the Phillies would face the Dodgers and Nola in the playoffs for years to come.
NEXT: A bitter division rival Nola helped put out of the playoffs two years in a row
Atlanta Braves
After nine years of having Nola on the team, it would admittedly be hard to see him suit up for a division rival, as already noted. But if that division rival happens to be the Atlanta Braves? Devastating.
Atlanta finished the 2023 season at 104-58 before being bounced by the Phillies in the National League Division Series for the second straight year.
This move would be a double whammy because not only would the Phillies need to face Nola, but they'd also be missing the benefits of Nola's strong stats against Atlanta.
In the regular season, Nola has faced Atlanta 33 times in his career. In those appearances, he went 15-10 with a 3.40 ERA, 57 walks and 203 strikeouts in 206 2/3 innings. In two postseason starts, both coming the past two years, he was 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA, three walks, and 15 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings.
In the 2023 National League Division Series, Nola took the mound for Game 3, giving up two earned runs and logging nine punchouts in 5 2/3 innings in an eventual 10-2 win for the home team.
Having won its sixth straight NL East division crown this year, Atlanta has consistently been one of the best teams in baseball during that time, winning the World Series in 2021. It wouldn't be a stretch if Nola saw the Phillies' division foe as a viable option to chase a ring.
In 2023, Atlanta's starting pitching staff was hit with some injuries, finishing with a team ERA of 4.36. Atlanta's rotation logged the 12th-most innings pitched at 852, a number Nola can help boost with his durability. Four of Atlanta's main starters ended the year with an ERA of 3.86 or lower: Spencer Strider (3.86), Max Fried (2.55), Charlie Morton (3.64), and Bryce Elder (3.81).
Things with the pitching staff went a bit sideways late in the season, though.
After the All-Star break, Atlanta's starters carried an ERA of 5.10, tied for 24th-worst in the league, according to FanGraphs. And that carried into the playoffs, where the starters put up a 6.05 ERA against the Phillies.
The biggest stumbling block to this possibility could be the tight purse strings from general manager Alex Anthopoulos. Historically, Atlanta hasn't been inclined to give out lucrative contracts, and Nola is expected to land a big deal. In 2023, only one player on the team — first baseman Matt Olson — made more than $20 million.
However, with the second consecutive early exit from the playoffs at the hands of the Phillies, the team could have a move up its sleeve.
And considering things got a bit tense between fans/mascots and players during the NLDS, it would be hard to stomach a former homegrown talent taking the mound for the opposing team.
Like with the Mets, there's no avoiding Atlanta. The two teams will face off 13 times next year, starting with the Phillies welcoming Atlanta to town on March 28 to open the 2024 season. Given the option, the Phillies would rather Nola be in their dugout, not Atlanta's.
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