2 trades the Phillies should have made, 1 we are glad they didn't
The trade deadline has come and gone. Here's a look at what the Phillies didn't do and why.
Yesterday, the trade deadline finally passed and the Philadelphia Phillies' overall addition were relatively subdued. They did manage to trade for a rental starting pitcher in Michael Lorenzen from the Tigers which shored up their rotation. The Phillies also swung a minor trade for switch-hitting utility man Rodolfo Castro to give them some depth.
For a team that is coming off a deep playoff run and that has real postseason ambitions in 2023, that is a pretty modest haul. Why didn't the Phillies do more? Well, the answer primarily is that this trade market sucked for buyers, but there were moves to be made and the Phillies ultimately didn't check all the boxes they were hoping to. More importantly, this was not a stereotypical Dave Dombrowski trade deadline where he swung for the fences.
Here are 2 trades the Phillies should have made and 1 we're glad they didn't
There are a lot of reasons why trades don't get done. Sometimes teams value players and prospects very differently. In other cases, playing in the same division or competing for the same fringe playoff chances makes matching up on a trade difficult to swallow. Finally, there are the moves that it just feel like a team missed the boat on without any rational explanation as to why they weren't more involved.
Time will tell as to whether or not the Phillies will regret not making the following moves. However, on the surface, these are moves that theoretically could have addressed their needs at the deadline for better or worse that they didn't get done.
The Phillies failing to add Mark Canha stings a bit
Going into the deadline, one need that had been pretty clearly articulated for the Phillies was a right-handed hitting outfielder. Philadelphia really needed to balance out their lineup and with their infield largely set in the near future, getting a righty bat with some pop for the outfield was the clearest fit. One name that did end up getting dealt that would have been a nice fit is Mark Canha.
This was a crummy trade deadline to need an outfield bat. Most of the teams that were selling just didn't have bats of note to trade. Adam Duvall seemed like a decent option, but Boston ended up not trading him at all. The Mets had a couple of options available in Tommy Pham and Mark Canha and between the two, it probably stings the worst to not land Canha.
Pham mashes lefties and has more pop, but his production over the years has been very inconsistent and he would likely come with some clubhouse concerns. Canha doesn't have a huge ceiling, but he has hit for some power, draws a ton of walks, and has posted an at least above average wRC+ in each of the last six seasons.
Canha ultimately landed with the Brewers who were really needing to boost their offense as well. Moreover, Milwaukee only gave up a minor league pitching prospect, Justin Jarvis, to nab him. It seems likely that some combination of the Mets wanting to charge the Phillies a premium because they are division rivals combined with the Phillies wanting someone that hits for more power ultimately led to a deal not getting done and the Philadelphia offense is lesser for it.
Speaking of an in-division trade that would have been rough to get done...
Justin Verlander could be awesome, but the cost for the Phillies would have been too high
The Mets were clearly motivated to change their team-building philosophy starting with this trade deadline and they were a part of the biggest moves as a result. They sent Max Scherzer to the Rangers and parted with several other important players on their roster as well. One move that they made on trade deadline day that could have fit the Dombrowski "trade for a superstar" mold is when they dealt Justin Verlander back to the Astros.
Verlander got off to a rough start in 2023, but he had looked like his usual dominant self over the last couple of months. The Phillies' rotation has already been the best in baseball in 2023 and there is a lot of wisdom in leaning into that sort of strength especially when you are building a roster to win playoff series.
However, the cost to the Phillies would have been too high to make such a deal worthwhile. First, the Mets almost certainly would have made Philadelphia pay a higher price solely because they are in the NL East if they were willing to trade him to them at all. Moreover, the Astros had to give up their top prospect in Drew Gilbert and arguably their second best prospect in Ryan Clifford to land Verlander. The Phillies just don't have that level of offensive talent in their farm system and to make up for that with greater quantity would have basically cleaned out the minor leagues.
Another issue is Verlander himself. He has looked much better of late, but his struggles early this season were a reminder that he is 40 years old and making a LOT of money next season which comes with a lot of risk. Moreover, Verlander had a full no-trade clause and he may have required some convincing to go to a Phillies team that is essentially hoping for a wild card spot at this point. The Phillies agreeing to guarantee his $35 million vesting option ahead of time for 2025 might have convinced him, but that heightens the risk further that such a trade would age poorly.
Philadelphia missed out by not adding Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton
Turning back to moves that would have been nice to see the Phillies make, the Cardinals were another surprise seller this year thanks to a dumpster fire of a first half. Gaining a quality starting pitcher as well as an excellent reliever in the same deal would have been fantastic for Philadelphia and that is exactly what the Cardinals sent to the Rangers in Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton.
Montgomery had a pretty strong argument as being the best rental starting pitcher available on the trade market alongside Lucas Giolito. Stratton may not have been the sexiest reliever, but his peripherals are sound and he would have added some real depth to the already strong Phillies bullpen.
What is even more puzzling about this one is that this feels like a deal that the Phillies could have easily matched or bettered. The package Texas sent to St. Lousi included a pitching prospect that is currently dealing with a shoulder injury, an utility infield prospect in Saggese who is having a nice year in Double-A, and a reliever with a 5.79 ERA this season. Philadelphia could have matched that without causing themselves too much difficulty in the long-term. Either the Phillies weren't enamored with Montgomery for whatever reason or the Cardinals liked Texas' prospect package better than most.
In any case, this is a move that would given the Phillies a better starter than the one they ended up with in Lorenzen plus a really solid a reliever. It sure seems like they missed out here.
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