2 reasons the Phillies will be trade deadline buyers, 2 to make them sellers
Heading into the 2023 season, it seemed like an automatic lock for the Philadelphia Phillies to get to the trade deadline in buyer mode. Despite missing the playoffs every year from 2012-2021, they often found themselves buying at the trade deadline instead of selling.
This season has them caught somewhere in between. They are still below .500 and while there is a ton of time to catch up, we have also witnessed them face some struggles that could hold them back. This may not be a year of adding a Brandon Marsh at the trade deadline. They may not even have enough wins to go out and grab a Jose Bautista near the end of his career.
Two reasons stick out the most as to why the Phillies will be trade deadline buyers. Another pair point toward a potential status as trade deadline sellers.
Phillies will be trade deadline buyers because they have too much invested in this season
What will the Phillies record be as they close in on the August 1 MLB trade deadline? Unless they have faded completely, expect management to push forward because of how much is already invested in the current club.
The Phillies aren’t inching closer to a championship. They’re right at the door. This is almost as good as it’ll ever get. There won’t be too many Bryce Harper years until maybe the very end when they decide to punt. With Trea Turner in the mix and the duo of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler together in the rotation, it’s easy for the Phillies to convince themselves not to accept a sunk cost and to move forward in almost any scenario.
This leads well into the other reason why the Phillies will be trade deadline buyers. They learned the value of just getting into the playoffs last year.
Phillies will be trade deadline buyers because they will be relevant by August 1
Before Joe Girardi was fired, it looked like the Phillies were facing another year with October virtually free aside from a few early games. Then came Rob Thomson. He took off his glasses, ripped open his suit, and let loose his cape. He was the superhero the team needed.
It’s difficult to imagine the Phillies being completely irrelevant by August 1. At .500 or even a little below is reasonable but shouldn’t be the death sentence for them to sell instead of buy. Some clubs can lean more heavily in one direction than the other. Last year’s Baltimore Orioles sold when they probably could have bought and made it to the postseason. Realizing that attending the playoffs was probably all they could accomplish, they decided to wait until the 2023 season to become one of the best teams in baseball—something they have been this season.
The Phillies are a lot different from the Orioles. They do have some up-and-coming young players but not nearly enough of their core compares to what’s going on in Baltimore. Philadelphia has been essentially in the same position since 2019. They’re a team with playoff potential. Unfortunately, it hasn’t worked out in many of those attempts.
All the Phillies need to do is make it into the postseason by being one of the best clubs in the National League. Grab the last seed again then take off. It worked out in 2022. As much of a burden as it is to fight your way through an extra round and on the road, it could be enough to get them to buy instead of sell this summer.
Phillies can become trade deadline sellers because the starting rotation just isn’t very good
Unless someone like Dylan Covey really becomes an arm they can trust in the rotation, it’s hard to see how the Phillies can manage through the next few weeks without five legitimate major league starters and stay in contention. A bullpen game every fifth day doesn’t work when your bullpen isn’t even all that great.
The Phillies weren’t built exclusively to win on the backs of their starting pitchers. They’re the kind of ball club that can beat you 2-1 or 10-9 thanks to their mighty offense. The weaknesses of the rotation, more so the lack of options rather than the pitchers they do have, can end up costing the Phillies in a major way. By the time the trade deadline does arrive, could they be so far out that there are no answers for them?
Taijuan Walker needs to show more consistency and the Phillies need Ranger Suarez to be the budding star they thought he’d grow into becoming in 2022. They can get by with four starters living up to expectations even if the fifth spot ends up falling back to someone such as Bailey Falter.
The rotation needs to do more than stay afloat to stop this team from becoming trade deadline sellers. If Nola and Wheeler aren’t aces, Walker looks like a bust, and Suarez is just mediocre, we might expect the Phillies to fall too far behind to justify giving up any of the future.
Phillies can become trade deadline sellers because the window to win isn’t closing
The Phillies do have a few trade chips they could shop in a worst-case scenario involving a summer of selling. Nola is at the top of the list. A few of the relievers on one-year deals, like Craig Kimbrel, could be more minor pieces the more serious contenders are willing to add. There isn’t a whole lot for the Phillies to tear down. It could have them conducting a minor sell-off simply because much of the same team will be back next season.
None of the main Phillies position players are headed to free agency after this season aside from Rhys Hoskins who is out for the season. They have an incredibly small crop of pending free agents which should have them thinking about success in 2024 more than extending their hope a little too far in 2023.
The Phillies’ farm system isn’t flush with talent to deal. Several misses in past drafts, previous trades, and graduations from the minors to the majors have given them a limited resource at the trade deadline. Why make an unimpressive move at any cost when it won’t be enough to fix the problems?
Six teams in the National League will get into the postseason this year. The Phillies feel like they have a team that could just as easily be that final ball club again or the first one to come up shy. The players have a little over two months to convince the front office they’re worth the faith of the front office to improve.
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