The Philadelphia Phillies are among the top teams in Major League Baseball, but nothing is guaranteed heading into October. Despite owning a five-game lead over the New York Mets for first place in the NL East entering Wednesday's series finale, the Phillies have dropped the first two games of this three-game divisional clash against their hated rival.
If the season ended today, the Phillies would be the No. 2 seed in the National League and have a first-round bye. However, the season doesn’t end today, and the Phillies have a tough road ahead before the playoffs.
Phillies face one of toughest strength of schedules to close out regular season
Entering Wednesday, the Phillies have a 99.8 percent chance to make the playoffs, an 81.6 percent chance to win the NL East and a 28.4 percent chance to clinch a first-round bye, per FanGraphs. Anything can happen, but another Red October at Citizens Bank Park is inevitable in 2025.
Although a fourth consecutive playoff appearance is likely, the road to get there is daunting. The Phillies have the fifth-toughest strength of schedule (.511) in the majors, while NL contenders such as the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres have easier paths ahead, per Will Leitch of MLB.com.
The Phillies have fared well against teams with winning records this year. They own a 30-26 record against said teams, better than any other NL contender besides the Milwaukee Brewers.
If the Phillies want to avoid a dramatic slide in the playoff picture, the veteran roster has to treat this final stretch like a do-or-die situation. The starting rotation must continue to be the strength of the team, even without Zack Wheeler, and the offense must avoid falling into the cold streaks it’s experienced at times throughout the 2025 season.
The Phillies came up short against the Houston Astros in the 2022 World Series and were one win shy of another World Series appearance in 2023. The hottest team heading into the playoffs tends to make the deepest run, and the Phillies must find a way to keep winning games to avoid another early-round exit like last year.