Phillies still have these matchup advantages over Braves despite late-season tailspin

Opta Analyst gives the Philadelphia Phillies the worst chance of any MLB playoff team to win the World Series. Even the 81-81 Houston Astros, the only team to ever make the postseason with a record at or below .500 in a full season, have better odds of winning it all this year.

But as we saw the last time the Phillies made the playoffs as a No. 6seed, and in 2017 when the Philadelphia Eagles were saddled with the NFL’s worst odds at a ring, hungry dogs run faster.
Following a September in which Philadelphia didn’t win a single series, they have lower expectations and fewer eyes on them, filling the 2 p.m. time slot all week. It might not feel like it to John Middleton’s wallet, bearing the brunt of the Phillies' $330 million payroll, but they are playing with house money. 

The Atlanta Braves have likewise been struggling. After a hot start to the season, they’ve gone 49-47 since June 9 and played .500 baseball in September. What was supposed to be a high-powered offense sputtered during the dog days of summer.

Since August 1, their OPS is .694. In that time the Phillies are at a remarkable .716, though it sure doesn’t feel like it. No playoff team has a worse OPS or wRC+ in that time span than the current Braves.

So if you're worried the Phillies’ bats are going into the playoffs ice cold, don’t be; the Braves have it just as bad.

More specifically, though, the Braves have had huge problems with left-handed pitching. Though the only stretched-out southpaw starter they’ll have to face is Cristopher Sánchez, they’ll also must contend with opener Jesus Luzardo in Game 1. Who knows what his pitch count will be.

Either way, the Braves rank 24th in MLB in wRC+ all season against left-handed pitching with a .694 OPS. Since May 4, they've been last in the league. 

Theoretically speaking, that should mean scuffling lefties Jose Alvarado and Brooks Raley should fare better against Atlanta - that is, if they factor into manager Don Mattingly’s plans. 

The Phillies' biggest advantage, of course, should be their starting pitching. They were second in MLB in K/BB, third in FIP, first in xFIP and SIERA, and fourth in the National League in ERA. No team in the NL got more innings from their starters. That matchup has been neutralized because Zack Wheeler cannot pitch on regular rest, and Luzardo is coming into this series without starting in over three weeks. Philadelphia may have a better closer in Jhoan Duran, but the Braves bullpen is far superior. However, there is much more the Phillies can take advantage of to gain an edge.

The Braves' biggest weakness is their base running. Of all playoff teams, only the Astros had fewer baserunning runs below average according to Statcast, and Atlanta had -2.5. The Braves stole only 83 bases all year, compared to the Phillies’ 105, and where the former were caught stealing 23 times, Philadelphia had runners thrown out on 19 occasions.

Adding to the Phillies' mastery over the baserunning game, J.T. Realmuto has the second-fastest pop time in base at 1.85 seconds.

Who owns the fastest? Garrett Stubbs.

Stubbs has a real chance at getting his first-ever playoff start, given his success receiving for possible Game 3 starter Aaron Nola and Realmuto’s current 1-for-38 slump.

Furthermore, both Braves catchers, Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy, have middling pop times (63rd and 54th percentile, respectively).

Finally, if it felt like the Phillies were getting a lot of hard-hit outs, especially as their potential collapse reached its zenith, you’d be right. According to xBA, which accounts for exit velocity and launch angle, no team in MLB was as unlucky.

Their team xBA was .250, the second-highest in baseball behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, but their actual season average was just .240. The discrepancy between their xwOBA and wOBA wasn’t quite as extreme, .318 to .311, but it’s true the Phillies suffered the ire of the baseball gods.

But a new season starts Tuesday. One in which the failures and successes of the past six months don’t matter. Throw out Trea Turner’s .242 average and Kyle Schwarber’s 45 home runs. Sánchez’s 52.1 scoreless streak is just as meaningless now as Alvarado’s 5.86 ERA.

All that matters is that the Phillies are playing in October, and they have the tools and talent to make this series a nightmare for the Braves.

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