Could the Phillies sign Jhoan Duran to the largest ever reliever contract?

Trading for Jhoan Duran might be president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s finest move in Philadelphia. You have to give a lot to get a lot, and while the Jesus Luzardo and Edmundo Sosa trades were great under-the-radar moves, Duran is the only major deadline splash Dombrowski has made during his time helming the Philadelphia Phillies.

After a season-and-a-half of shutdown performance from the Phillies closer, Duran has only one year left of team control. You don’t trade two top-100 prospects in Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait, only to lose your return.

Duran is a free agent after 2027, and after five straight years of shutdown relief work, he’ll command a small fortune on the open market following his age-29 season.

Last year, the far more volatile Edwin Díaz hit free agency going into his age-32 season. The Los Angeles Dodgers signed him to a $23 million AAV over three years ($69 million total). That’s with Diaz two years removed from a 3.52 ERA and three years removed from missing the 2023 season entirely with a torn patellar tendon.

The last time a similarly aged closer entered free agency as dominant as Duran was Josh Hader in 2024—and even then, you could make the case that Duran has had a better lead-up to free agency.

Hader earned a five-year, $95 million deal ($19 million AAV) from the Houston Astros after a 2023 season with the San Diego Padres in which he posted a 1.28 ERA and 2.69 FIP in 56.1 IP. Duran’s 2026 was remarkably similar; he pitched to a 1.82 ERA with a 1.42 FIP in 59.1 IP.

Beating the biggest reliever contract

So a deal with a benchmark AAV between $20 and 25 million over four to six years might be where negotiations start. If the Phillies do complete an extension with Duran, it’s fair to expect the largest-ever contract for a relief pitcher.

Díaz's extension with the New York Mets, signed in November 2022 and opted out of in 2025, currently holds the record at five years/$102 million. If Duran’s contract totals as much as $135 million, don’t be too surprised. MLB contracts have inflated year over year exponentially since free agency was introduced in the ‘70s.

Of course, this could all be moot with the introduction of a salary cap during the upcoming CBA negotiations this winter. Who knows how contract structures could change?

But it’s safe to say, salary cap or not, Dombrowski and the Phillies will look to extend their closer before he reaches free agency at the end of the 2027 season.

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