The Philadelphia Phillies are poised to hit a home run this winter. With nearly $80 million coming off the books, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has room to maneuver in his free-agent pursuit.
The vacancy at third base is now somewhat less pressing given Dombrowski’s comments regarding Aidan Miller’s ability to contribute to the big-league club in 2027, so the Phillies’ primary focus seems to be corner outfield.
Barring any trades, Brandon Marsh, Justin Crawford, Derek Hill, and Bryan De La Cruz seem slated to handle the bulk of the playing time in left and center field. But that group lacks leading talent, and Dombrowski needs to add a high-impact bat this offseason to balance that core.
What will signing Suzuki or Arozarena cost the Phillies?
Thus, the primary free agent options boil down to Seiya Suzuki, Rady Arozarena, Ian Happ, and Teruaki Sato. The first two on that list have qualifying offers attached, which means the Phillies would forfeit their second- and fifth-round MLB Draft selections in 2027, in addition to $1 million in international bonus pool funds.
Given that Suzuki and Arozarena are the two most surefire Major League sluggers on the market, giving up what may end up being a pittance in prospects to acquire one of those stars seems like a fair trade.
Last year, with those assets, the Phillies drafted Caden Bogenpohl, Will Gasparino, and Juan Parra. All three players have helium on the team’s prospect rankings, but you’d be crazy not to trade them for several years of a player like Arozarena or Suzuki, who would help the Phillies win a championship now. His 148 OPS+ was 17 points better than any Phillie in 2026.
Plus, both Arozarena and Suzuki’s market value will be driven down by the fact that they have qualifying offers attached.
Sato, meanwhile, has no qualifying offer attached, but whoever signs him will have to pay a posting fee to his NPB club, the Hanshin Tigers, in addition to paying his contract.
Sato has a career 27.4% strikeout rate in Japan. Will his swing translate to the Major Leagues, where players throw even harder? Signing him would be a risky move, but like Arozarena and Suzuki, it’s one the Phillies must be willing to make.
The one player on the aforementioned list who carries little to no risk is Happ, who. coincidentally, is the only player the Phillies do not have a reported interest in.
The biggest question mark around Happ is that his OPS+ has declined every year since 2024, but in each season he’s had an OPS+ greater than 103 and hit at least 23 home runs while playing excellent defense.
Given their pursuit of these high-value players, the Phillies must commit to their strategy. Chickening out now and avoiding the hazards associated with Arozarena, Suzuki, and Sato would send a cowardly message to fans. The Phillies have a problem; they know what it takes to fix it. Now is the time to do it.
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