Phillies pump the brakes, temper expectations after Andrew Painter mania

It's hard not to get excited while watching Philadelphia Phillies top pitching prospect Andrew Painter carve up minor league hitters in the Arizona Fall League. Especially after his latest start on Wednesday, in which he added his changeup back into the pitch mix, per MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo.

It took a couple of two-inning starts to get some of the rust off after not having pitched in a game situation for almost two full seasons. Now, the tall right-hander has absolutely dazzled, ripping through hitters in his last two outings. He's now thrown six scoreless innings in his last two starts with six strikeouts and just three hits with no walks.

Preston Mattingly, Phillies pump the brakes and temper expectations after Andrew Painter-mania

As thrilling as it is for Phillies fans to see the team's 2021 first-round pick lighting up the radar gun in the desert, it sounds like we should pump the brakes on our wild expectations for the youngster in 2025. At least that's what Phillies assistant general manager of player development Preston Mattingly hinted at during a recent appearance on The Phillies Show podcast.

When the topic of Painter's progress in the AFL and his role next season came up, Mattingly was quick to pull the reins back a little on what to expect next year.

“When you get a guy that's that talented and is that close to the major leagues, it's just human nature to want to talk about him being in the big league rotation and things of that sort," Mattingly said. "But I think as an organization, we have to do a good job of tempering expectations, making sure people realize Andy is still a kid.

"He's still working through his delivery. You can't rush development and let him develop at his pace and then when he gets there it's like, hopefully he's there to stay.”

Phillies aren't confident what Andrew Painter's 2025 season will look like

Painter is just 21 years old, and won't turn 22 until after Opening Day next year. He's well on his way to building back up from Tommy John surgery last summer, but he still has a long way to go.

Mattingly's thoughts come on the heels of president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski previously stating that he expects Painter to pitch in the big leagues in 2025, despite not being sure exactly what that would look like in the rotation.

In his last season in the minors, in 2022, Painter threw 103 2/3 innings. How high the Phillies will let his workload get in 2025 is anyone's guess. Maybe 130 or 140 innings? Paul Skenes threw 160 innings between the minors and majors for the Pirates this past season after accumulating around 130 between college and the minors in 2023. But then, he wasn't coming off of major elbow surgery and two seasons of not pitching.

Andrew Painter's stuff won't be a problem

The good news is, as long as he stays healthy, any pullback the Phillies have to make won't be because of Painter's stuff or his work ethic, that's for sure.

"The stuff's continued to trend really well, the command has trended upwards as he's gotten more innings under his belt, more pitches," Mattingly said. "Honestly, I think he's just scratching the surface of who he's going to be. I think he's a special talent, a special kid from a work ethics standpoint, and he has the pitch mix and the weapons to get guys out now.”

After waiting two full seasons for the No. 2 Phillies prospect to make the majors, fans will want to see Painter pitching at Citizens Bank Park as soon as humanly possible. If the Phillies want Painter to be a factor down the stretch and into the postseason next year, odds are that he won't be in the starting rotation on Opening Day.

And that's okay, because we'll see him eventually, when he's ready.

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