Aaron Nola is the longest-tenured Philadelphia Phillie and it's not particularly close. Selected seventh overall by the organization in 2014, Nola made his Major League debut in July of the following year. The rookie who once sat next to Cole Hamels during the week they spent as teammates has climbed the franchise leaderboards and become one of the greatest pitchers in Phillies history. Unfortunately, Nola hasn't performed up to expectations after signing a seven-year contract with the club in 2023.
In 2024, Nola posted a 3.57 ERA through 199 1/3 innings (33 starts) and allowed 30 home runs, which led the National League. Over the past two seasons, Nola has a 6.02 ERA across 179 1/3 innings (34 starts), far and away the worst stretch of his career. The iron-man pitcher, who led MLB in innings pitched since his debut, spent significant time on the injured list in 2025. Encouraging performances in the postseason and the World Baseball Classic gave cause for some hope, but the 33-year-old has continued to show further signs of regression.
Monday night marked the 302nd start of Aaron Nola's career, passing Chris Short for the third most in franchise history. The offense built an early 5-0 lead against Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft, but no game feels out of reach with Nola on the bump. Pittsburgh blitzed the Phillies' starter in the middle innings, scoring eight runs (seven earned) and chasing him out of the game in the fifth.
His latest performance wasn't a shock to anyone who's watched him pitch this season. Following the game, NBC Sports Philadelphia's Michael Barkann and Ruben Amaro Jr. voiced their frustration with the Phillies' starter.
"He's not the same pitcher and, unfortunately, they've got to pay him $25 million-plus for four years after this one."
— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) June 30, 2026
The PGL crew breaks down Aaron Nola's struggles. pic.twitter.com/azZXA2PWWF
Since 2000, Nola's 6.04 ERA is the fifth worst for any Phillies pitcher through their first 17 starts. "That is a significant struggle for a guy who's been an All-Star," Barkann said, "He's not the same pitcher." Amaro Jr., the GM who drafted Nola out of LSU, agreed that he hasn't been pitching at the same level he once did. The two echoed the sentiment shared by much of the fanbase.
Ruben Amaro Jr. has interesting explanation for Aaron Nola's 2026 struggles
Amaro Jr. interestingly pointed to the ABS system as a possible cause for Nola's struggles in 2026: "Some of the pitches that are just off the corner or just on the corner that are being called balls and are not challenged ... it makes it really tough for him because now he has to throw the ball over the plate, and he doesn't have the same velocity as other pitchers." The stats back up his claim.
Throughout his 12-year career, Nola has lived in the shadow zone, the area around the edges of the strike zone. From his MLB debut through 2025, Nola had the fourth-highest shadow zone percentage among pitchers with at least one thousand innings pitched. Thus far, Nola's 43.1-percent shadow zone percentage in 2026 is the worst mark of his career. As a whole, MLB's shadow zone percentage is the lowest since it began being tracked in 2008, but this league-wide trend disproportionally affects Nola.
"I gave up a lot of runs tonight and didn't really do well with the lead I got."
— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) June 30, 2026
Aaron Nola provides an honest assessment of his start. | @WapnerNewman pic.twitter.com/5riYlazkFW
At the end of the day, no one is more frustrated with his performance than Nola himself.
"I haven't really had a stretch like this ever in my career," he said following the 11-7 loss, "I feel like I've been kind of an innings eater [over my career] ... I haven't really stepped foot in the sixth inning too much this year." When asked by reporters to share his message to the struggling veteran, JT Realmuto elected to keep his message private.
The Phillies might have an Aaron Nola problem, but there's no immediate solution. Andrew Painter is currently revamping his arsenal in Lehigh Valley with no timetable for a return to the big leagues, and the organization lacks rotation depth. Dave Dombrowski will almost certainly be forced to add to the rotation ahead of the deadline, but the issue will persist past this season.
Even if Nola continues to pitch at this level, the Phillies lack options. Taijuan Walker was DFA'd back in April, but it took until the final year of his deal for the Phillies to absorb the cost. Nola has four years and $98 million remaining on his contract after 2026. In the meantime, Philadelphia can do nothing but hope that its once-franchise cornerstone figures it out.
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