Phillies Magic Number getting tantalizingly close after satisfying sweep of Mets

When the Phillies were swept by the Mets in August, I had that sinking feeling known to all Phillies fans and the reemergence of a perennial question, “Could they possibly blow it?” Throughout the early days of summer, the Phillies and Mets were in a real race for the NL East, and in mid-June, the Mets had the best record in baseball.

Ever since that disastrous Mets series in August, the Phillies have been hot and the Mets have been astonishingly bad, which culminated last night in a Phillies four-game series sweep of the Mets. This sweep leaves the Phillies with a magic number of 5 to win the NL East.

The Phillies went into the series with a magic number of 13. It decreased so precipitously because a magic number is not just about how many games the Phillies win, but rather the combination of how many games the Phillies win and how many losses their closest competitor, the Mets, accrues. A win by the Phillies reduces their magic number by one and a loss by the Mets additionally reduces the number by one, which is how we get an eight-game reduction in the magic number over one four-game series.

The Phillies sweeping the Mets in four consecutive games was the most efficient way to get them closer to that NL East title. 

Phillies Magic Number for NL East title sits at 5 after defeat of Mets

At this point, it would shock the conscientious if the Phillies don't make the playoffs, and it would take a brutal end to the season for the Phillies not to win the NL East.

Technically, the Phillies could clinch the NL East this weekend if they sweep the Royals and the Mets continue their losing streak and drop a couple of games to the Rangers. It is certainly possible, considering the Phillies' longest winning streak this season was nine games, and the Mets' longest losing streak was seven games. However, as Phillies fans, we can never bank on the best-case scenario, and especially amidst half the infield being on the injured list, that would seem a bit greedy.

The team has to stay focused on clinching the NL East, and once they’ve brought the title back to Philly, the focus will shift to whether they can secure a first-round bye for the postseason. The way the postseason bracket for MLB works is that each league (American & National) sends six teams into the playoffs: three division winners and three wild-card teams. Of the division winners, the two with the best regular season records in their league get a bye in the first round, which means they get a week off and do not have to play during the Wild Card Series. The Phillies’ magic number for a bye is 12 games.

Here the focus on competitor losses expands to include the Brewers and Dodgers. The Brewers currently have the best record in the National League (89-58) and are two games up on the Phillies (87-60). If the Phillies and the Brewers were to tie for best record, the tiebreaker would go to the Brewers, who have a better record against the Phillies this season. This means that for the Phillies to finish ahead of the Brewers, the Phillies need to finish the regular season with at least one more win than Milwaukee.

Against the Dodgers (82-64), on the other hand, the Phillies hold the head-to-head advantage so far. The upcoming series against the Dodgers will not only be consequential because it's the series during which the Phillies are most likely to clinch the NL East, but also due to the impact on their magic number towards the first-round bye.

There are 15 games left in the season and the Bank is sure to be packed for all of them as Phillies fans hope for another World Series run this red October.