Philadelphia Phillies fans have suffered through the same thing for a few offseasons now. Handcuffed by a payroll already pushing up to the $300 million mark, the high-spending Phillies haven't made big significant free agent additions to the roster since signing Trea Turner after the 2022 season.
With fans clamoring for a significant move this winter, the reality of the team's financial situation dictates our worst fears: they won't go out and sign a top free agent, like Bo Bichette.
To be fair, they haven't really needed to add a big-name player to commandeer the NL East the last two seasons. After re-signing Kyle Schwarber during the MLB Winter Meetings, their other additions this offseason have been minor modifications.
Signing right fielder Adolis García for one year at $10 million and right-hander Brad Keller for $22 million over the next two years has pushed the payroll about as far as the Phillies want to go before hopefully re-signing J.T. Realmuto.
Phillies look stuck again this offseason thanks to self-imposed payroll limitations
As fans we can easily say, "It's not my money," and call upon the front office to spend more and more and more. However, as The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal points out in his latest offseason update (subscription required), the Phillies are among a handful of top spenders in the league who are close to crossing the fourth luxury tax threshold.
Why is that bad? It essentially means that signing one of the top free agents, like Bichette, who has again popped up in rumors after his former employer signed Kazuma Okamoto, means that the Phillies would end up having to pay double his salary in 2026.
"Three other teams – the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees – are one major move away from the 110 percent bracket," Rosenthal notes. "The Phillies, within $4 million of the highest threshold, are closest, per FanGraphs. If they re-sign free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, they would pay 110 percent on most of his salary. If they added a top free agent on top of that, they would pay the full 110 percent. But after this season, they will gain considerable payroll flexibility."
FanGraphs currently projects the Phillies' 2026 luxury tax payroll to be $300 million. The fourth and final threshold is $304 million.
The Phillies still need to resolve their catching situation before even considering another big move. If they re-sign Realmuto, it's expected to be for roughly $15 million per season. They'll be paying 110 percent tax on a majority of that salary.
If they don't bring back Realmuto and find a cheaper option via trade or on the free agent market, they could have more wiggle room for another big addition. But it seems unlikely.
Based on the past couple of offseasons, Phillies managing partner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski seem steadfast in hovering around the $300 million mark. Considering the bargain-bin "hoping for a bounceback" additions they made last winter in Jordan Romano and Max Kepler and García this offseason, it's obvious they're trying to find value anywhere they can.
Schwarber's contract was their big spend this offseason but doesn't improve the team over 2025's version in any way. So Phillies fans will just have to settle for that, and maybe Realmuto, as the bulk of the roster will likely remain just about the same heading into 2026.