The MLB season is down to its final months. After hearing for months about Shohei Ohtani being the National League MVP favorite and some talk of Pete Crow-Armstrong early on, Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber has changed that narrative, per MLB.com's Mike Lupica, with a fantastic month of July and the first part of August post-All-Star break run.
Kyle Schwarber slashed .264/.368/.725 in July with 12 home runs, the 1,000th hit of his career, 29 RBIs and 17 runs scored. In 22 games since the All-Star break, he’s slashing .271/.367/.741 with 12 home runs and 28 RBIs with 23 hits and 15 runs, putting his name in the NL MVP race.
The MVP odds are shifting quickly across the board. Schwarber has passed Crow-Armstrong and now sits second at +1800 on FanDuel Sportsbook, while Ohtani remains the favorite at -20000. Two other sportsbooks, BetMGM and DraftKings, have similar odds. BetMGM has Schwarber second at +1400 and Ohtani at -3000, while DraftKings has Schwarber at +1600 and Ohtani at -6000. The odds opened with Schwarber at +8000 to begin the year, so his progress in closing the gap is impressive.
Kyle Schwarber deserves to be in MVP conversation after carrying Phillies lineup
Schwarber and Ohtani are close in many statistical categories, making this race even tighter. A key difference eventually could be Ohtani's ability to pitch, while Schwarber remains a designated hitter. Whether it’s fair to penalize a player for being a designated hitter is a separate debate.
Schwarber and Ohtani both have 42 home runs, which leads the National League, while Schwarber continues to lead the NL in RBIs. Ohtani and Schwarber are close in on-base percentage, with the Dodgers' slugger holding a slight advantage. However, Ohtani still has the higher batting average.
Kyle Schwarber vs. Shohei Ohtani by the numbers
Stat | Ohtani | Schwarber |
|---|---|---|
fWAR | 5.5 | 3.9 |
HR | 42 | 42 |
RBI | 78 | 97 |
SB | 17 | 10 |
BA | .284 | .252 |
OBP | .389 | .376 |
SLG | .624 | .584 |
OPS | 1.013 | .960 |
G | 117 | 118 |
Stats updated to Aug. 11
Another point to consider is the definition of "Most Valuable Player." If Ohtani and Schwarber were both removed from their teams' lineups, where would the teams stand?
For example, Schwarber has hit nearly 30 percent of the Phillies' home runs this season (42 out of 142, or 29.6 percent), while Ohtani has hit 23.7 percent (42 out of 177). The Dodgers have hitters like Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and Teoscar Hernández. Meanwhile, Schwarber has played different spots in the order, often stepping up to pick up the slack for the Phillies' offense, especially during stretches when players like Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm have been sidelined. Schwarber has truly carried the Phillies at times, which speaks to his “Most Valuable Player” case if viewed from this angle.
The surge in his betting odds is well-deserved, and Schwarber should be viewed as a legitimate contender to steal the MVP from Ohtani. Ohtani has won back-to-back MVPs and three of the last four seasons, counting both his Dodgers and Angels tenures. Schwarber, however, is looking for his first MVP, with his highest finish in the race being 15th. At the very least, the Phillies' slugger should be a finalist for the award, which only strengthens his contract negotiation price.