February brings back baseball, as we will finally see MLB action again this month. With the ramp-up to the 2025 season upon us, speculation on how the season will play out is running wild.
Every year, Baseball Prospectus releases its PECOTA projections for the upcoming season. PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is the Baseball Prospectus system they developed to accurately project and predict team and player values, much like that of other outlets such as FanGraphs.
Their newest rendition for the 2025 MLB season gives little respect to the defending National League East Champions.
PECOTA projects major regression for the Phillies in a healthy NL East
Coming off the back of their first NL East crown since 2011 and the sixth-most wins in team history in 2024, the Phillies are projected to not only not reach the 90-win mark in 2025 but to finish third in the division behind the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets.
Remarkable algorithm.
Projected at 87.6 wins, the Phillies are projected for two fewer wins than the 89.1-win Mets and four fewer wins than the projected division champion Braves at 91.9. Like always, PECOTA predicts the league to be much more level than it usually turns out. Excluding the Los Angeles Dodgers (for obvious reasons), there is only one team besides the Braves projected to win 90+ games: the Chicago Cubs.
The return of the Braves stars and the addition of Juan Soto to the Mets in 2025, as well as the growth of other teams within the division, explains why the Phillies could see fewer wins in 2025.
The losses of Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez will hurt, but adding a lefty weapon in Jesús Luzardo and another outfielder in Max Kepler led the Phillies to come out close to equal after the offseason. Even with a poor end to 2024, it's tough to drop a 95-win team into third place in their division just one year later.
The good news for Phillies fans is the PECOTA rankings have some major misses, including not only the Phillies' projections last year but four other MLB postseason teams that had differences of over 10 wins between the projections and the final standings.
Regarding the PECOTA projections coming out. Here are the biggest misses of 2024: pic.twitter.com/FzIJ8wGdRz
— Nick’s Picks (@nicksMLBpicks) February 3, 2025
How do the Phillies chances look for the playoffs?
While the projected third-place finish is disheartening, the Phillies are still looking at 71 percent odds of making the postseason, with their most likely route being the Wild Card at 48.6 percent. They have lower playoff odds than both teams in front of them within the division, with the Braves being heavy favorites to win the NL East at 50 percent.
For one last punch in the gut on the way out, PECOTA projects the Phillies as the 10th-most likely team to win the World Series in 2025, at 4.3 percent, behind some shockers such as the Chicago Cubs (7.5 percent), Texas Rangers (7.2 percent), and the Seattle Mariners (4.7 percent). The American League will likely be an easier route to a championship as teams don't have to get through the Dodgers until the final series, but the good guys still find themselves fifth in National League championship odds.
Predictions for the upcoming year are favoring the Phillies NL East rivals due to the Mets' hot run down the stretch and the hope of a strong return from Ronald Acuna and Spencer Strider for the Braves, but put little emphasis on the top-tier addition of Luzardo and the recent success the Phillies have had in the past seasons, finishing as one of the final four teams in the NL every year since 2022. With that being said, there is no one in the city of Philadelphia who is worried about being the underdog.