Phillies' decision about Kyle Schwarber might not be as easy as fans think

The Philadelphia Phillies' decision to re-sign Kyle Schwarber is not as easy as fans might think. After losing early in the playoffs for a second consecutive season, the organization needs to consider making some tough decisions this winter.

A potential manager change is officially not going to happen. Manager Rob Thomson will return, despite speculation to the contrary, following another disappointing postseason. As one of the leading favorites to win the World Series following the 2022 season, the Phillies have underachieved with this roster during the last three postseasons.

It would not be a wise decision to enter a rebuild. However, a retool is necessary. They can't run it back for another year again with the majority of their core intact. That option has run its course.

Phillies want to bring back Kyle Schwarber, but should they?

The Phillies should not re-sign Schwarber to a multi-year contract. Not signing him will hurt the club offensively and the front office would need to have a plan to replace the home run hitter. However, what if they bring him back for multiple years and he begins to decline?

Either decision brings a certain amount of risk.

Especially since he will cost a lot. The expectation is that Schwarber is seeking a five-year, $150 million deal (subscription required), according to Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer. Even if that's not what he gets, it's going to be a massive, unprecedented contract for a 33-year-old designated hitter.

Along with Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, Schwarber has been one of Philadelphia's core offensive players. Neither Harper nor Turner is going anywhere due to their massive contracts with no-trade clauses. While some fans and local media may rather part with either of the two players, the Phillies are stuck with them.

That brings us to Schwarber. He is coming off one of the finest regular seasons for a Phillies player in recent memory. His 56 home runs were three shy of surpassing Ryan Howard's team record of 58. The designated hitter's averages of 47 home runs, 109 RBIs, .856 OPS and .366 wOBA over the last four years with the Phillies are exceptional.

However, Schwarber's success during the regular season did not translate again in the playoffs. He entered October on a cold streak, and it carried over to three of the four NLDS contests against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In the 2024 NLDS, some of Schwarber's advanced statistics were not as strong as they were this year in this year's series. He had a .188 ISO compared to .438 this postseason. His wRC+ of 66 in last year's playoffs was also less than his 139 wRC+ this October.

While Schwarber did slightly better in this year's postseason, Philly fans and the organization expect much more of him in key moments during playoff games.

The fans are tired of excuses. Philadelphia has regressed each year in the playoffs. Maybe they aren't good enough to win a championship with this roster and coaching staff. Besides injuries, a lack of fortune with players not playing well at the right time, and bad managerial decisions, what other explanation is there?

This roster needs substantial changes. While unpopular and risky, the decision not to re-sign Schwarber represents the best chance for Dombrowski to shake up the roster, which is necessary at this point.