Following a really fun (if not ultimately disappointing) week of All-Star festivities, the Philadelphia Phillies look primed to make some noise in the second half of the season. Their roster filled with six All-Stars has already made the climb out of an early season hole and enters the stretch run just two games out first place in the NL East.
But just before we all get ready for some high-intensity baseball with October implications, the Phillies had to come in an slam us with a devastating piece of news: Brad Keller has a torn UCL and will likely miss the rest of the season.
To make matters worse, that's the injury that tends to precede Tommy John surgery. If Keller, who has already missed significant time in his career due to venous thoracic outlet syndrome, does undergo that procedure, it may effectively end his time in Philadelphia.
Phillies reliever Brad Keller has a torn UCL and is expected to miss the rest of the season. If he undergoes surgery on his right elbow, it would keep him out a significant portion, if not all, of 2027 as well. Keller signed a two-year, $22 million deal over the winter.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 16, 2026
Brad Keller's elbow injury will have massive, differing implications for Phillies in 2026 and 2027
Before we get into the long-term logistics of this news, let's acknowledge the obvious, immediate implication: the bullpen is now a massive area of need prior to the trade deadline. One could argue that it already was prior to Keller's injury announcement, but this may vault "relief help" to the top of the front office's priority list.
Considering that a right-handed hitter (and/or another outfielder) and another playoff-caliber starter are also on that list, it figures to be a busy few weeks for Dave Dombrowski and company. How they plan to navigate the trade deadline with so many needs and such a thin farm system remains to be seen, but they now unequivocally need another set-up man to bridge the gap to Jhoan Duran in the ninth inning.
Beyond the next few weeks, the real concern here is that Keller has potentially thrown his final pitch for the Phillies. Not every UCL tear requires TJS -- less severe tears can be treated with PRP (platelet-rich plasma) injections, internal brace surgeries, or even just plain rest -- but it is quite common for pitchers to go under the knife when the tear affects their throwing elbow.
Keller hasn't been at this best this season, pitching to a 4.02 ERA and 4.15 FIP over 32 appearances, though his excellent contact quality metrics suggested better results were forthcoming. Instead, the Phillies may have to eat the remainder of his two-year, $22 million deal knowing those results won't be improved upon. Tommy John surgery usually comes with a 12-14 month recovery timetable, though a pitcher with Keller's injury history (and seeing as he'll turn 31 in a few weeks) could push him toward the longer end of that window.
If he is done, his salary will be a weight on the payroll next year; $11 million is already a sizable price tag for a non-closer reliever, and that's before any changes come to the economics of baseball in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. The Phillies will have to replace him for at least the remainder of 2026, though they may find themselves limited in doing so for 2027.
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