Despite a relatively slow offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies did get a big upgrade to their starting rotation. By acquiring Jesús Luzardo from the Miami Marlins in late December, the club added extra pitching depth in the form of a quality left-hander.
With the addition of Luzardo and solidified rotation pieces in Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez, the starting pitching staff is one of the organizational strengths as Opening Day inches closer.
Assuming all five of those arms are healthy come March 27, the first five pitchers are set. The question is, how will manager Rob Thomson deploy his juggernaut of a rotation to begin the 2025 campaign?
Phillies 2025 Opening Day starting rotation prediction 1.0
Here is our first prediction as to the direction Thomson may go. All five starters are quality arms, so the order of the rotation may not be dictated by talent alone. Mixing in three left-handed pitchers with Wheeler and Nola will also play a factor.
1. Zack Wheeler, RHP
Perhaps the most obvious decision that the Phillies will make leading up to Opening Day is handing the ball to their staff's ace to get the season started. Since joining the Phillies prior to the 2020 season, Wheeler has been the rock of rotation. During his time in red pinstripes the right-hander owns a 2.94 ERA, a 2.96 FIP and a 1.03 WHIP.
The two-time All-Star is poised to lead the staff once again. Coming off of a season in which he finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting, Wheeler will look to give the team a chance to win every fifth day. Look for the ace to get his second consecutive Opening Day nod.
2. Cristopher Sánchez, LHP
It would be weird not to see Nola take the hill in the second game of the season, but due to the left-handed heavy starting rotation, it would not be surprising to see Thomson opt to use one of his lefties here to split up the righties.
Sánchez's breakout 2024 campaign earned him a chance at pitching in the top half of the rotation. The left-hander made his first-ever All-Star appearance last July. Overall, his 3.32 ERA, along with a 1.24 WHIP, instilled confidence among the Phillies organization and the fans.
After pitching 181 2/3 innings last season, the 28-year-old starter has shown he can handle a full workload. As long as he can continue to dominate with his change-up, Sánchez should be a mainstay in the rotation. Time will tell if he can truly be a consistent top-tier starting pitcher, but he has earned the opportunity to showcase his stuff.
3. Aaron Nola, RHP
Nola has been about as steady as they come in his ten years with the Phillies. He makes his starts and typically gives his team a chance to contend. Yes, he has been vulnerable to giving up too many long balls, but the workload he endures year after year makes it all worth it.
The 2014 first-round pick has made at least 32 starts in each full season (not including the shortened 2020 year) dating back to 2018. He has also eclipsed 180 innings in each of those campaigns.
The Phillies know what they have in Nola. He is going to pitch to somewhere around a 3.50 ERA. He is going to give up home runs but also rack up strikeouts and eat innings. In a rotation as deep as this current one, that is all the team will need from him.
4. Ranger Suárez, LHP
If Suárez gets the nod to start the fourth game of the season, he would be slated to pitch in the Phillies' home opener against the Colorado Rockies. The left-hander will become a free agent for the first time in his career after 2025. Given his flashes of greatness over the past few seasons and a shortage of quality arms hitting the market, the 29-year-old will be a hot commodity entering this offseason.
The 2024 season featured a Jekyll and Hyde-like performance from Suárez. Through the first month of the season, the Phillies' lefty was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. As spring turned to summer, Suárez's numbers began to go in the opposite direction.
There were injuries and time on the shelf, but it just seemed that he could not get that early-season consistency back. The Phillies and Suárez will hope for a steadier 2025. He has demonstrated his potential, now it's about keeping it going for a full, healthy season.
5. Jesús Luzardo, LHP
You know that the Phillies' rotation is deep when a guy like Luzardo is slotted into the fifth spot.
In stark contrast to the prior two years, the Phillies, if healthy, do not need to dread the days on which a No. 5 starter has to take the ball. Luzardo is more than capable of rounding out the rotation and making it one of the best in baseball.
His 2024 season was basically lost mainly due to back issues that have now been corrected, according to Luzardo. Going back to 2023, the former Marlins pitcher sported a 3.58 ERA over 178 2/3 innings. If he can remain on the field, the 2016 third-round draft pick will be a welcome addition to this pitching staff.
There is still well over a month until the 2025 season gets underway. Many things can happen that could change the outlook of the rotation, but this is one potential scenario that could be seen to start the year.