Philadelphia Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has done a terrible job putting together a bullpen. Aside from elite closer Jhoan Duran, the club has few shutdown options, and that pathetic group took another hit when last winter’s free agent acquisition Brad Keller was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament, likely a season-ending injury. In light of ongoing speculation that the team could trade for lights-out reliever Luke Weaver, the question is worth asking: what if they had just signed Weaver instead?
The Phillies came into this past offseason with a glaring need: bullpen help. The club hadn’t employed a dominant late-inning arm since Jonathan Papelbon prior to last summer’s addition of Duran, and even then they struggled to get key outs in the playoffs. Orion Kerkering’s season-ending blunder and José Alvarado’s performance-enhancing drug suspension opened up even more questions.
Despite his team’s bloated payroll, Dombrowski looked to the free agent market to address his ailing relief corps, reeling in right-hander Brad Keller on a two-year, $22 million pact. The 30-year-old had long served as an uninspiring starting pitcher for the Kansas City Royals, posting a 4.27 ERA over six seasons in Western Missouri.
Things went haywire for him in 2024 when he posted an ugly 5.44 mark across 41 â…“ innings split between the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox. The Chicago Cubs took a flier on him last season and were rewarded handsomely with a breakout campaign. In 68 games for the Cubbies, Keller worked to a marvelous 2.07 ERA with 75 strikeouts.Â
That was excellent timing for the burly Georgian, as he entered free agency coming off of the best season of his career. Unfortunately for the Phillies, that meant they had to pony up to get him. The $22 million they guaranteed over two seasons matched the deal that the division-rival New York Mets gave to Luke Weaver, another journeyman type with a stronger track record of success.
Signing Luke Weaver instead of Brad Keller would have changed everything for the Phillies
Weaver came up with the St. Louis Cardinals a decade ago as a highly-touted prospect with a devastating fastball/changeup combination. The 2014 first-round pick was decent in his first few years with the Cards before he was flipped to the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of the return for future Hall of Famer Paul Goldschmidt. Weaver was hot and cold in four seasons with the Snakes, but ultimately put up a rough 4.72 ERA across 198 â…“ frames.
After the Diamondbacks cut bait on him, he bounced around to the Royals, Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners, never lasting long at any stop. He finally found a home in the Bronx when the New York Yankees grabbed him off waivers at the tail end of the 2023 season. The Floridian rode an excellent three-game stint in pinstripes to a full-time job for 2024 and he repaid them in spades.
Weaver made his way into 62 games for the pennant-winning Yanks, firing 84 innings of 2.89 ERA ball, punching out 103 batters and walking just 26. That terrific campaign begat another, as he wasn’t quite as elite, but still very effective with a 3.62 ERA in 64 outings the following season. Of course, some of the shine was off Weaver as he entered free agency, posting a 4.40 second-half ERA after recovering from a June hamstring injury and recording one out across three playoff outings, allowing five earned runs.
Overall, Weaver turned in 162 frames of 3.22 ERA ball with 191 strikeouts in just over two seasons with the Yankees. Contrast that to the 69 â…” innings Keller tossed in his platform year, and Weaver had almost tripled his workload.
Relief pitchers have a tendency to vacillate between outcomes. Injuries, small sample sizes and the changing baseball landscape can cause one season’s lights-out arm to never be heard from again. Phillies fans are plenty familiar with this phenomenon, as names like Michael Stutes, Andrew Bellatti and Connor Brogdon have titillated with excellent campaigns before falling off the face of the earth.
Track records are everything for late-inning arms, and that has been borne out across the league this year. Ancient closers Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez have led the Atlanta Braves to the top of the division, while late-bloomer Tyler Rogers has wiped out the competition for the Toronto Blue Jays. Similarly, Weaver is in the midst of his best year to date, posting a miniscule 2.03 ERA across 38 games for the New York Mets.
Compare that to Keller’s 4.02 mark in 32 contests for the Phillies, and there’s a clear winner. Unfortunately for the Phils, it’s not just Keller’s inferior on-field performance that’s making fans wish for a mulligan.
Keller was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching arm last week, which barring a miracle should keep him out for the remainder of this season and most, if not all of 2026. Given his mediocre performance when on the mound and now his devastating injury, Dombrowski’s Keller signing basically amounts to lighting $22 million on fire.
The Phillies will need to part with prospect depth they don’t really have if they want to acquire a meaningful bullpen addition at this year’s trade deadline, and a large part of that is due to the failed Keller signing. If Dombrowski had simply chosen to hand the same exact contract to a more established arm this past winter, this could have been avoided altogether. Unfortunately, Dave Dombrowski’s tenure is replete with tragic what-ifs.
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