MLB prospect evaluators can't agree on how to rank this top Phillies prospect

The prospect industry can't seem to come to a consensus on Justin Crawford.

Prospect Justin Crawford of the Philadelphia Phillies
Prospect Justin Crawford of the Philadelphia Phillies | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

With training camps and spring training right around the corner, it's that time of the MLB offseason when the various media outlets dump their annual prospect ranking on us. It always gives fans a boost of optimism for their team's future — depending on which team you cheer for.

Philadelphia Phillies fans have had plenty to be optimistic about when it comes to prospect outlooks lately. With stud right-hander Andrew Painter on track for a 2025 major league debut, and shortstop Aidan Miller coming soon, we're beginning to see the fruits of the Phillies' efforts to cultivate a sustainable farm system.

Phillies prospect Justin Crawford baffles MLB prospect evaluators

One of the team's top prospects, however, has started to baffle prospect evaluators. For whatever reason, experts around baseball can't seem to figure out how to rank Phillies outfield prospect Justin Crawford. There doesn't seem to be a consensus on how to rank the freshly-turned 21-year-old.

The five Top 100 prospect rankings that have been published have Crawford ranked all over the map. The highest is The Athletic's ranking (subscription required), which ranks Crawford No. 3 in the Phillies farm system and No. 41 overall. The lowest is FanGraphs, which ranks him No. 8 on the team and doesn't even have him in its Top 100.

Here's a list of the five outlets and Crawford's rankings, as compiled by Phillies Tailgate on X:

Outlet

Phillies

Overall

The Athletic

No. 3

No. 41

MLB Pipeline

No. 3

No. 64

Baseball America

No. 4

No. 96

Baseball Prospectus

No. 6

NR

FanGraphs

No. 8

NR

At least he's still in the Phillies Top 10 prospects on everyone's list, and he barely hung onto a spot in Baseball America's new Top 100 after being ranked No. 44 last September.

"The tools are great, the ceiling is incredibly high," Phillies minor league follower Mitch Rupert posted on X. "But it's not without concerns. Watch a week's worth of his games and you'll see the gamut of all the things that make him exciting, and that raise concerns."

Crawford's biggest attribute is his speed — he stole 47 bases in 2023 and 42 in 2024 — but evaluators have concerns about his power and his propensity to put the ball on the ground. The 17th overall pick in 2022 was tasked with improving his batted ball metrics last season.

He was working on getting the ball in the air in 2024, hitting more line drives and fly balls. He reduced his ground ball rate to 60.9 percent from 69.7 percent in 2023 and upped his fly balls from 13.7 percent to 20.4 percent.

While the underlying metrics look better, the results also impressed everyone in the Phillies organization. He was named the team's Paul Owens Award recipient as the top position player in the system. In 110 games between High-A Jersey Shore and Double-A Reading, Crawford hit .313 with an .805 OPS, 25 doubles, four triples and nine home runs.

The Phillies have hinted this winter that Crawford, despite his ranking around the industry, is close to the major leagues and might have a shot this season if everything falls right. Hopefully Crawford impresses in spring training and in the minors to begin the year, and changes everyone's mind about how to value him as a prospect.

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