The Philadelphia Phillies made quite a few impact moves at the 2026 trade deadline, with Luis Arraez, Brooks Raley, and Caleb Kilian all joining the party. While adding a three-time batting champ and bullpen depth was important, there was one major need on Dave Dombrowski's shopping list that was left unfilled: a starting pitcher.
Dombrowski said that he was "a little concerned" with where the Phillies' starting pitching depth stood following the trade deadline, but ultimately could not find a match despite rumors swirling that the was in the market for a starter.
This week, though, Philadelphia had an opportunity to right that wrong. The Colorado Rockies have DFA'd Michael Lorenzen, and FanSided's MLB insider Robert Murray noted that a reunion in the City of Brotherly Love could have made all the sense in the world.
Instead, the Phillies opted to shore up their pitching depth by signing Nestor Cortes Jr. out of nowhere, towards the end of his recovery from elbow surgery. The upside is similar; neither pitcher is particularly illuminating. But at least Lorenzen is currently active.
Michael Lorenzen might be a familiar face, but he's an experiment the Phillies can avoid
Murray was obviously right that the Phillies needed to investigate any and all opportunities to stabilize the back of the rotation - they did so mere hours later. Aaron Nola met the moment with his performances during the Field of Dreams game, but it's been a struggle overall for the 33-year-old for the better part of two years now.
On top of that, Andrew Painter's season has been a slog, and nothing he's tried has seemed to break him out of his slump. His most recent outing against the Minnesota Twins on August 16, which saw him give up five earned runs while serving up two long balls, erased much of the optimism his previous three starts since being recalled from Lehigh Valley had generated.
But is Lorenzen any sort of answer? The former Phillie has a 7.08 ERA on the season, so while he has a permanent place in fans' hearts after his no-hitter heroics, that mark alone is enough for the team to pause.
To be fair to Lorenzen, Coors Field isn't a fun place for any pitcher to call home. Not only does the ball travel further there, but pitches break less as the altitude reduces the Magnus force that the ball's spin creates, yielding less movement.
So, while it's fair to assume that Lorenzen would fare better at a location closer to sea level, is it truly enough to say that he's a better option than Nola or Painter? Not necessarily.
Lorenzen posted a 4.64 ERA with the Kansas City Royals last season, while serving up 1.59 homers per nine innings. He recorded a 3.81 mark in 2024 while splitting time between the Royals and the Texas Rangers, but his 4.95 xFIP points to that being a mirage. During his stint in Philadelphia, he recorded a 5.51 ERA, and his xFIP on the whole for the season came in at 4.68.
xFIP has a strong correlation with future performance, so while Lorenzen's xFIP this year is significantly better than his bloated ERA, it still checks in at an uninspiring 4.93. At the same time, Nola's xFIP is 3.86 while Painter owns a 4.75 xFIP.
Essentially, we can conclude that Lorenzen isn't likely to outperform Nola, and in the best-case scenario, is likely to match Painter's performance. At that point, it makes more sense to give the 23-year-old the run instead of replacing him with a struggling veteran.
Murray's logic is sound. Familiarity matters, and the Phillies' options were limited to, apparently, a wild swing on an injured ex-Yankee. With that said, Lorenzen just doesn't present a strong enough case to truly be considered an upgrade.
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