When the Philadelphia Phillies re-signed J.T. Realmuto to a three-year, $45 million contract last offseason, they were opting for stability over upside behind the plate. Considering how good the three-time All-Star has been throughout his career, that choice made sense, especially in the wake of losing out in the Bo Bichette sweepstakes.
Then, the 35-year-old backstop fell off a cliff. His overall offensive value finished in the fourth percentile among all MLB hitters per Baseball Savant, while his 68 wRC+ and .614 OPS set new career lows in a full season. Perhaps even more concerning, 2026 marked the first time since 2015 that Realmuto finished a year with an on-base percentage below .300.
None of that is particularly promising for a catcher who will be closer to 40 than 30 come Opening Day next year, but it's also not the whole story. Realmuto may no longer be a 20-20 threat at a premium position, but he should have no trouble bouncing back in the second season of his new contract.
Phillies should expect more from J.T. Realmuto after he was a victim of ridiculously bad luck in 2026
The first and most obvious place to look when a player experiences a precipitous decline is in the luck category, and it's clear that Realmuto's was horrendous. His .239 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was the seventh-worst among all hitters with at least 450 plate appearances during the regular season, in the company of players like Dansby Swanson and Marcus Semien.
Yet Realmuto hardly "earned" that bad luck; Semien finished in the 13th percentile in average exit velocity, whereas the Phillies' backstop ranked in the 54th. In fact, Realmuto was average or above average in each of the following categories this year: exit velocity, bat speed, squared-up rate, whiff rate, and strikeout percentage, hardly the profile of one of the worst hitters in the league.
THE PHILLIES TAKE THE LEAD 😮
— MLB (@MLB) September 29, 2026
J.T. Realmuto sends one to the corner and two runs come around to score! pic.twitter.com/FgOqUsHvGg
That's exactly why the veteran's expected stats were so much better than his actual numbers. Realmuto's .249 xBA (44 points above his batting average), .387 xSLG (56 points above his slugging percentage), and .317 xwOBA (42 points above his weighted on-base average) were all significantly higher than his final slash line.
None of this is meant to suggest Realmuto will be able to stave off Father Time forever. However, he remains remarkably athletic for a mid-30s catcher -- his sprint speed and pop time are still top of the charts for the position. He's a much better hitter than he showed in 2026, and with better luck, the numbers should reflect that in 2027.
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