For the first time since the ink dried on his seven-year, $172 million contract, Aaron Nola looks like the pitcher the Philadelphia Phillies signed him to be. His authoritative shutdown of the New York Mets in Queens, NY, Thursday night was the latest in a series of performances that have rekindled confidence in the starting rotation ever since Jesús Luzardo was placed on the injured list with shoulder stiffness.
Over his last 10 starts, Nola has averaged exactly 6.0 IP with a 2.10 ERA. And even though he’s still been prone to giving up the long ball, of the nine home runs he’s allowed over that aforementioned stretch, eight of them have been solo shots.
There’s an element of luck involved in Nola’s resurgence. He’s allowing too many home runs and walks, and not striking out enough hitters to maintain an ERA that low. Nevertheless, his command has improved since earlier in the year. Nola is doing a better job of attacking the bottom of the zone with his fastball and staying below the zone with his curveball. Since Aug. 19, his strike rate is up by more than 2%.
Aaron Nola has tangible reasons for recent Phillies success
Attribute this to Garrett Stubbs, or a change in attitude, or finally getting used to ABS, or the pitch clock, or any number of things. Nola is pitching like it’s 2018 again, and it couldn't come at a better time.
“I think it's important no matter what, right?” Phillies catcher Garrett Stubbs told Todd Zolecki of MLB.com about Nola’s late-season success. “Obviously, being down [Jesus Luzardo] amplifies every single start a little bit more.”
Forget Luzardo; with the Phillies bullpen in shambles, they need every inning they can get out of their starters. There is no clear path to All-Star closer Jhoan Duran. Rookie Alex MacFarlane is the next best weapon out of the bullpen, and he has 14.2 IP in the Major Leagues.
Zack Wheeler, Cris Sánchez, and Aaron Nola hold the keys to winning a postseason series, though few except Stubbs and Nola himself would’ve bet on the latter name being included on that list.
“We’re just seeing the pitcher that Aaron Nola always can be,” Stubbs said. “We're just getting the best out of who he is, and I think maybe we lost that for a second.”
For Nola, the turnaround has come from consistency. Consistency with his routine, consistency with his pitches, and consistency as he ages.
“Just taking it hitter by hitter and game by game. Try not to be too perfect with my pitches, make sure my weeks are good, my body's healthy, the bullpen sessions are good, and just to be prepared as best as I can going into each start,” Nola said.
In the postseason, manager Don Mattingly must ask more of his starters than has been traditional in the 2020s. For Nola, it will be a microcosm of his career. From 2018-24, he threw more innings than any other starter in baseball.
After a disastrous 2025 and a rough start to 2026, it was reasonable to believe there was nothing left in the tank; Nola was used up. Now, as a 33-year-old, likely past his prime, Nola will be asked to do what made him so effective for so many years: eat innings. And, as things stand as of September 18, he’s doing so better than ever.
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