Aaron Nola pitched his first game of the 2025 season for the Philadelphia Phillies on March 30 against the Washington Nationals. Phillies fans got the full Nola experience after dominating through 3 2/3 innings and striking out six, before a 1-1 cutter changed the inning and the outlook of his start. The cutter ran inside and hit Nationals catcher Keibert Ruiz and two batters later, Phillies killer Josh Bell hit a three-run home run.
Nola has been bitten by the long ball throughout his 11-year career. A season ago, he allowed 30 home runs in 33 starts, two fewer homers than in 2023. However, it was the most in the National League and fifth in all of Major League Baseball, per Matt Watson of Philly Sports Network. His HR/9 has been above 1.00 in five of the last six seasons, except for the 2022 season at 0.83.
The right-hander doesn't live off velocity like many pitchers in baseball today, as he averages 91.7 mph with his four-seam fastball while the league average is 94.9 mph. Nola lives off the movement of his pitches, throwing his curveball and changeup a combined 44 percent of the time.
Phillies fans shouldn't worry about Aaron Nola after just one start
Phillies fans shouldn't be overly concerned, as this is a familiar topic with Nola at this stage of his career. Nola has learned how to battle through the long ball with a career 3.72 ERA and a 3.75 ERA over the last three seasons, during which time he has given up 81 home runs in 97 starts. He understands how to limit base runners overall, and he continues to limit damage while giving up home runs at a high rate.
It would be concerning if he didn't look good in other aspects of the game, but he continued to strike out batters at a high rate. So, it seems like a similar Nola through the first start of the season. He finished with eight strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings, while allowing five earned runs on six hits.
His recipe for success and being able to continue to pitch with an ERA in the 3.00 range is his chase and whiff rate. A season ago, he had a chase rate of 86 percent, which is a great number, and a whiff rate of 47 percent, around the league average.
It won’t get any easier for Nola as his expected next start for the Phillies will be against the Los Angeles Dodgers at home on Saturday, April 5 against one of the better lineups in baseball.
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