History is not on the Philadelphia Phillies' side following their 5-3 loss in Game 1 of the National League Divisional Series to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Philadelphia finds itself needing to come from behind again at home in the NLDS, as it needed to do last year in the postseason.
The Phillies have quite a task in front of them in winning three contests out of a possible four games in the series. MLB postseason history does not favor the Phillies' chances of regaining control of and winning the series.
NLDS history heavily favors Game 1 winners
According to MLB.com's Sonja Chen throughout MLB postseason history, teams that win Game 1 in a best-of-five series have won the series 113 times out of 156. The winning percentage is 72.4 percent. Chen also notes that in the current 2-2-1 format of the Divisional Series, teams that have won Game 1 on the road have advanced in the playoffs 34 of 46 times, or 73.9 percent of the time.
The Phillies know from their recent history how winning or losing Game 1 of the NLDS ends up dictating which club goes on to win a series. They defeated the Atlanta Braves 7-6 on the road in Game 1 of the 2022 NLDS, won the series and advanced all the way to the World Series.
Philadelphia went on to defeat Atlanta again in the 2023 postseason in Game 1 of the Divisional Series, winning 3-0 on the road. They advanced to the National League Championship Series for a second consecutive season. However, they lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks in seven games.
The Phillies' luck has reversed in Game 1 of the NLDS the last two postseasons.
Last year, they dropped Game 1 to the New York Mets, 6-2. The Phillies got out to a 1-0 lead on Kyle Schwarber's home run in the first inning. Zack Wheeler kept the Mets from doing anything offensively, but they erupted once Philadelphia's relievers entered the contest, as they went 7-for-11 with six runs.
The Phillies tied the series with a Game 2 win but dropped the next two contests on the road at Citi Field and lost earlier in the postseason than anticipated.
Phillies in tough against Dodgers and NLDS history after Game 1 loss
History has thus far repeated itself this postseason following their Game 1 loss to the Dodgers. Philly jumped out to a 3-0 lead early in the game before Los Angeles got on the scoreboard in the sixth inning.
Starter Cristopher Sánchez pitched well until this inning. After getting the first two batters he faced out, he gave up a two-out walk to Freddie Freeman, a single to Tommy Edman, and a two-run double to Enrique Hernández.
The Dodgers took the lead off the bullpen in the seventh inning. Sensing a pattern here between this game and Game 1 of the 2024 NLDS? There is a developing concern for the Phillies regarding how their offense and relievers have been costing them wins in the playoffs.
By then, Los Angeles pitcher Shohei Ohtani had regained control of the game. Following the second inning, the modern-day Babe Ruth kept the Phillies from scoring any more runs. He stymied their lineup, including core players Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. The trio went 0-for-9 with five strikeouts versus him. For the game, they went 1-for-11 with one walk and six strikeouts.
While the Phillies have a roster that is talented enough to tie and win the series, they have to go out and execute. There is concern about whether they can do that to get three victories against the Dodgers. Philadelphia needs to prevent NLDS history from repeating itself.