The draft is a long game. The proper framework for grading a first-round pick, usually is one looking at an overall picture of five to eight years with arbitration and free agency as tangible measuring sticks. Also, development is nonlinear, injuries happen, and players peak on their own timelines. That said, five years is enough to form a picture and we can look at performance in the minors and majors, prospect rankings and trajectory, and what happened in the draft after each pick was made. Here's an honest look at the last five years of the Phillies’ first picks.
Phillies' last 5 first-round MLB Draft selections are extremely notable
2021 — Andrew Painter, RHP (No. 13 Overall) | Grade: C
Painter arrived as the most celebrated pitching prospect the Phillies had drafted in years — 6'7'', five-pitch arsenal, ace-level ceiling from day one. The road to the big leagues was brutal: Tommy John surgery in February 2023 wiped out that entire season and all of 2024 while he recovered. He returned in 2025, spent a full minor league season at Triple-A, and finally earned his Opening Day roster spot in 2026. His debut on March 31 against Washington was everything the Phillies had been waiting five years for: 5.1 innings, one run and eight punchies.
After that first start, things went downhill. Painter is now 0-8 with a 7.06 ERA through his first 14 appearances, and the Phillies tried everything: bulk relief appearances, an opener in front of him, moving his spot in the rotation. It didn't work; they recently optioned him to Triple-A.
I've written before about the development arc for a 6'7'' high school pitcher and the patience it requires — and I still believe that's the right framework here. Big frames take longer. The mechanics are more complicated. He's 23 years old and it's his first taste of Major League Baseball after losing two full years to Tommy John. There is still a piece to be found in Andrew Painter.
But the timing couldn't be worse for this grade — or for the Phillies. If he were pitching to his potential right now, they'd have a future frontline arm they could utilize during a championship run and then build around in the future. Instead, they're shopping at the deadline, likely for a couple key arms or rotation help. And if he'd been dominant, he'd be a legitimate trade chip to upgrade other areas of the roster — a major-league-ready arm with upside is currency. And it stings more when you hold the 2021 class up to the light. Jackson Merrill, taken at No. 27 — 14 picks after Painter — is now an All-Star and NL Rookie of the Year winner, one of the best young outfielders in baseball. James Wood, taken at No. 62, is already mashing as an elite power bat.
Notable players picked after: Colson Montgomery (No. 22, White Sox), Gavin Williams (No. 23, Guardians), Jackson Merrill (No. 27, Padres), Andrew Abbott (No. 53, Reds), James Wood (No. 62, Padres), Bubba Chandler (No. 72, Pirates), Mason Miller (third round, Athletics), Hunter Goodman (fourth round, Rockies), Tanner Bibee (fifth round, Guardians)
2022 — Justin Crawford, OF (No. 17 Overall) | Grade: B+
The son of Carl Crawford, Justin arrived from Bishop Gorman High School with elite speed already baked in and a hit tool that never wavered. He hit .300 or better at every minor league level, set the IronPigs' single-season franchise batting average record (.334) in 2025, stole 46 bases, and debuted on Opening Day 2026 as the youngest Phillies outfielder in an Opening Day lineup since 1972. He's adjusting at the big-league level — the contact is real, the speed is elite, but a career ground-ball rate pushing 60-70% and essentially no power leave his offensive ceiling genuinely unsettled.
The only real knock would be the offensive upside, unless you look at who else the Phillies could have grabbed. With Sal Stewart having an electric start to the 2026 season and being in the top three of the NL Rookie of the Year race, I am sure Dave Dombrowski has dark moments when Sal is rounding the bases. But, thats just one of the names that likely haunts most GM's these days. Jacob Misiorowski is the other. "The Miz" was picked 63rd overall, so this wasn't just a Phillies miss. He debuted with an All-Star campaign in 2025, threw the fastest pitch by a starting pitcher since tracking began in 2008 (105 mph) last month, and went 9-3 with a 0.23 ERA across a nine-quality-start streak in May.
Hindsight is always 20/20, so this a tough one to knock the front office with. Especially when Crawford was a .322 career minor leaguer, is trending in the right direction (hit .307 in June with 11 runs scored) and putting together a solid rookie campaign.
Notable players picked after: Sal Stewart (No. 32, Reds), Jacob Misiorowski (No. 63, Brewers), Chandler Simpson (No. 70, Rays), Roman Anthony (No. 79, Red Sox), Drake Baldwin (third round, Braves), Cam Schlittler (seventh round, Yankees)
2023 — Aidan Miller, SS (No. 27 Overall) | Grade: B- (Curved from a C+)
Miller came out of J.W. Mitchell High School, signed for $3.1 million, and delivered on the promise in 2025 — .264/.392/.433, 59 stolen bases, a 1.100-plus OPS over his final 36 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He looked like a player ready to force the Phillies' hand. Instead, recurring lower-back soreness has kept him from playing a single game in 2026. He underwent a spinal procedure in June and the best-case scenario is a minor league return in August.
The 2023 class was one of the strongest in recent memory. Ten picks after Miller was taken at No. 37, the Tigers swiped Kevin McGonigle, who grew up in Drexel Hill, Pennsylvania — just miles from Citizens Bank Park as a lifelong Phillies fan. He made his MLB debut on Opening Day 2026 with four hits, signed an eight-year $150 million extension by April 15, and entered the season as the No. 2 overall prospect in baseball. The depth of impact from this class after pick 27 is hard to ignore.
The back injury isn't a character flaw or a scouting error. But a lost year, against this class, with a hometown kid ten picks later signing for $150 million, makes this the most complicated grade of the five.
Notable players picked after: Kevin McGonigle (No. 37, Tigers), Luke Keaschall (No. 49, Twins), Grant Taylor (No. 51, White Sox), Brandon Sproat (No. 56, Mets), Nolan McLean (No. 91, Mets). George Lombard Jr. (No. 26, Yankees) was taken one pick before Miller.
2024 — Dante Nori, OF (No. 27 Overall) | Grade: C
Nori arrived from Northville, Michigan as a pick that divided evaluators — undersized at 5'9'', nearly 20 at draft time, and without a power tool. The Phillies saw a contact-and-speed engine and paid below slot at $2.5 million. He validated their belief in the hit tool, stole 52 bases in his first full season, and has touched Double-A. But a shoulder bone bruise this spring, a walk rate that's dipped from 13% to under 5% in 2026, and the persistent ceiling question — can a contact-only profile with no power stick at the major league level? — make the grade genuinely uncertain.
Two picks later at No. 29: James Tibbs III, now in the Dodgers system after the Rafael Devers trade, hitting .310 with 21 home runs and a 158 wRC+ at Triple-A and jumping into MLB Pipeline's top-100 prospects. That's the power the Phillies have needed for two years, taken a few minutes after they chose the opposite profile.
Notable players picked after: James Tibbs III (No. 29, Red Sox), Payton Tolle (No. 50, Red Sox), Gage Jump (No. 73, Athletics), Sam Antonacci (fifth round, White Sox)
2025 — Gage Wood, RHP (No. 26 Overall) | Grade: A
Wood came out of Arkansas with a 19-strikeout no-hitter at the College World Series on his résumé and the best fastball in the college class. The Phillies broke their five-year streak of high school picks, signed him below slot for $3 million, and watched him skip through Single-A before arriving at Double-A Reading with 35 strikeouts against 9 walks in 25 innings — significantly more punchouts than innings pitched. Dave Dombrowski attended his debut in person, he's the No. 2 prospect in the system and he's leapt to 68 nationally. It's likely too early for meaningful class comparisons, but everything points in the right direction and we could see Wood contributing to the big league team later this summer.
Notable players picked after: Caden Bodine (No. 30, Orioles), Anthony Eyanson (No. 87, Red Sox)
Five drafts: one active big leaguer finding his footing (Crawford), one delayed ace battling command questions after Tommy John (Painter), one lost season with a back (Miller), one ceiling debate (Nori), and one arm who looks like the best of the bunch just getting started (Wood). That's not a failing report card. But it's not an honor roll either — especially when you hold it up against who went right after them. But, the draft is a long game. Five years in, the Phillies are still playing it.
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