Free agent and trade rumors continue throughout November with the yearly anticipated MLB Winter Meetings due to take place in just over a week. The meetings are scheduled to occur in Dallas from December 9-12. What could be in store for the Philadelphia Phillies?
In the offseason, Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos have been mentioned in various trade rumors thus far. Speculation has been rampant that the Phillies will shake up their team following a disappointing postseason in 2024. Could the organization trade any top prospects this winter to upgrade the roster?
A three-team mock trade involves the Phillies roster getting more experienced but older in the process
MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince wrote a piece proposing several Black Friday blockbuster trades. One of the mock deals involves the Phillies, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Seattle Mariners. Philadelphia would aim to boost its roster to win a World Series in 2025.
The Phillies would trade Bohm to the Mariners, their No. 3 prospect outfielder Justin Crawford and No. 6 prospect starting pitcher Mick Abel to the Cardinals. Seattle is looking for a hitter who could strengthen their lineup.
Some stars are on the move in this @castrovince hypothetical deal 👀 pic.twitter.com/CIGOwt7Wyg
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) November 26, 2024
St. Louis is reportedly looking to rebuild their roster next year. MLB.com ranked their prospect system as the 19th-best in August. Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter also ranked the club as having the 19th-best farm system in September. Acquiring Crawford, Abel and the Mariners' No. 3 prospect, outfielder Lazaro Montes, could improve the Cardinals' prospect system ranking to begin the 2025 season.
Philadelphia acquires veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado and one of the league's top closers this year in Ryan Helsley from St. Louis. The Phillies also get young starting pitcher Emerson Hancock from Seattle and cash considerations in the trade.
Nolan Arenado is not the player he used to be
Arenado's numbers have gradually declined, specifically in the last two years. Coming off a resurgence in 2022 with a slash line of .293/.358/.533 and a .891 OPS in 148 games, the Newport Beach, California, native totaled a .266/.315/.459 line and an OPS of .774 in 144 contests.
He finished with only 72 strikeouts two years ago compared with 101 in 2023. He only finished with 26 doubles compared to 42 the season prior. He posted 93 RBI a year ago, 10 less than the 103 he totaled in 2022.
His numbers continued to drop this year. Arenado finished with 16 home runs compared to 42 two seasons ago and 26 in 2023. He finished with 71 RBI in 152 games this season, 32 fewer than his total in 2022 and 22 less than the amount he finished with last year. He finished with a .272/.325/.394 line and 92 strikeouts in 2024.
Arenado's offensive numbers could receive a boost playing at the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park as a member of the Phillies. However, he is well past the offensive consistency he demonstrated earlier in his career with the Colorado Rockies.
Philadelphia is not improving by replacing Bohm with the 33-year-old veteran. Arenado has three more years remaining on his contract. He is due $21 million next year, $16 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027, according to Spotrac. The Phillies should not take on a contract such as this with a player who is on a decline. They have other multi-year contracts with veterans such as Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. Nick Castellanos, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker and Zack Wheeler are other veterans with multiple years remaining on their current deals.
Ryan Helsley was a top closer in 2024, but is he worth the trade cost?
Helsley represents an upgrade for the Phillies at the closer position if Carlos Estévez does not return. The St. Louis Cardinals reliever finished with a career-high 49 saves in 53 opportunities, another career-high. The most saves and opportunities he received before 2024 was two years ago when he totaled 19 saves in 23 opportunities.
This season was a breakout for him as he led all closers in saves and save opportunities. Helsley's value is the highest in his career, and the Cardinals will be looking to take advantage of it if they trade him this winter. The question is if he can build upon and repeat his success in 2024 if the Phillies were to acquire him.
However, Helsley does represent an upgrade at the closer position over other Philadelphia relievers on the roster, with some experience in save situations. Matt Strahm has 26 career save opportunities in nine years, and José Alvarado has 61 save opportunities in his eight-year career.
Emerson Hancock's mixed MLB results in are concerning
Mariners starting pitcher Emerson Hancock only has 15 starts in his two-year career in the majors. He may provide competition for the Phillies' fifth starting spot in their rotation. The native of Cairo, Georgia, certainly has more upside in this role compared with Walker's current value. The youngster's mixed production during his limited time in the majors raises concerns. However, he is still at a young age where he can improve his mechanics to decrease the average of home runs he has allowed.
Hancock posted a 7-3 record and a 3.43 ERA in 17 starts with the Tacoma Rainiers of Triple-A this season. The 25-year-old allowed 10 home runs. He totaled a 4-4 record and a 4.75 ERA in 12 starts with the Mariners. He surrendered 12 home runs with Seattle this year. His tendency to allow home runs may not serve him well pitching in Citizens Bank Park with the Phillies.
The Phillies have been rumored to be trading Crawford since they do not want to trade either of their top two-ranked prospects: shortstop Aidan Miller and starting pitcher Andrew Painter. Philadelphia's top-ranked outfielder has a great chance of being promoted to the majors next season.
Crawford could be the club's answer to their troubles for consistent production among outfielders. Manager Rob Thomson played several players in center and left field throughout 2024, with varying inconsistency offensively. The young outfielder has looked impressive at all levels in the Phillies' minor-league system. He is a potential star, and Philly will regret trading him.
Abel did not have a good season in Triple-A with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. He spent time on the Development List during the summer to work on his mechanics. A club would be buying low on him currently if the Phillies trade him.
Despite his struggles in the minors, he is still only 23 and has enough time to improve. Philadelphia selected his contract from Lehigh Valley earlier in November, which protects him from being picked by another MLB club in December's Rule 5 Draft. Philly believes he has potential by not making him available for the upcoming draft.
The Phillies do not appear to be getting better by acquiring a declining player in Arenado. Helsley is coming off an outstanding season and represents a better closer than anyone on Philadelphia's roster. However, he has only one season with several save opportunities and saves. Relievers tend to be erratic year-to-year as well or sometimes during the same season.
Hancock's mixed production during his limited time in the majors makes him an unknown. Can he be successful at this level? Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has a reputation for trading top prospects. He has been aggressive in his previous roles with the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox. Fans of top prospects, such as Crawford, should be nervous in anticipation that some of the club's top young players could be traded this offseason, given the executive's history.
Our grade for this proposed three-way trade: C-