Glaring flaw could hold back Phillies' top outfield prospect despite strong start

The Philadelphia Phillies are off to a strong start this season. Despite some concerning individual performances, with an 9-5 record, the star-studded roster is performing how we thought it would, more or less.

But it's not just the big club that's off to a good start this season. Down in Allentown, the Lehigh Valley IronPigs are off to just as good a start, if not better. The Phillies' Triple-A affiliate sports a 10-3 record, scoring 74 runs in 13 games — that's 5.69 runs per game.

Phillies fans will be pleased to know that one of the organization's top prospects is helping carry the offensive load.

Justin Crawford's ground ball rate could hold back the Phillies' top outfield prospect

Outfielder Justin Crawford, the team's No. 3 prospect and No. 60 overall in MLB Pipeline's rankings, has had an impressive start to his Triple-A career. Despite showing off his abilities at the plate, on the base paths and in the field, there's one glaring flaw that the 21-year-old has continued to struggle with in the early going.

Crawford has appeared in 12 games for the IronPigs so far, hitting .283 with a .698 OPS, including two triples. He has seven RBIs, has scored seven runs and stolen five bases. With just eight strikeouts in 56 plate appearances (14.3 percent strikeout rate), he certainly doesn't look overmatched at the highest level that the minor leagues have to offer.

One area of concern remains his propensity to put the ball on the ground. It's something that has dogged him through the minor leagues, with evaluators torn on Crawford's prospect status thanks to a high ground ball rate at every stop along the way.

While he's in no way billed as a home run-slugger, he has a glaringly high 67.4 percent ground ball rate this season. That only leaves room for a 16.3 percent line drive rate and a 16.3 percent fly ball rate.

The thing is, Crawford's 75-grade speed is such an elite tool, it might not matter — at least in Triple-A.

It might just be who Crawford is. He hit the ball on the ground 60.9 percent of the time between High- and Double-A in 2024. That was even down from his 2023 mark of 69.7 percent. That didn't stop the Phillies from naming him the organization's top minor league position player last season.

Posting a ground ball rate that high in the big leagues is another matter. There's an extremely narrow path to success for players who put the ball on the ground at such a high clip — the league average is 44.6 percent. However, Phillies manager Rob Thomson sounded more than happy about Crawford's hitting during his time in major league camp this spring.

“Crawford had a really good spring, he really did," Thomson said after Crawford was sent to minor league camp. "He’s an exciting guy. I know that there’s talk that they want him to get the ball up in the air, but I think he’s fine where he’s at right now.”

Phillies' outfield situation is far from settled

The Phillies might be looking for help in the outfield later this season. It depends on how the Max Kepler-Brandon Marsh-Johan Rojas experiment plays out. Even Edmundo Sosa is getting chances in left field now.

Will general manager Preston Mattingly, who's familiar with Crawford from his time as the team's farm director, consider Crawford? The Phillies have said they don't think Crawford is in their plans this season, but they could change their tune.

There's an outside chance that the 2022 first-round draft pick might be in the running for a September call-up. But that's a long way into the future. A lot can happen in a few months. For Crawford, he'll likely need to show the ability to get the ball in the air a bit more. How much more before the Phillies are happy remains to be seen.

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