We’re just a week out from the annual Major League Baseball Winter Meetings when, presumably, the offseason will really get moving. Already rumored to be working on a trade for Chicago White Sox left-handed starter Garrett Crochet, the Philadelphia Phillies also have needs to address in the bullpen and the outfield.
Needless to say, the front office is going to have a busy winter.
While president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and general managers Sam Fuld and Preston Mattingly are scouring the free agent and trade markets for corner outfield help this offseason, one candidate due for a bounce back could be flying under the radar.
Free agent Max Kepler should be on the Phillies' radar as an outfield fallback plan
Right fielder Max Kepler had what can only be described as a down season in 2024. The 31-year-old has been picked by MLB.com’s Thomas Harrigan as one of the available free agents who underperformed but with solid reasons to believe in a return to form in 2025.
Kepler played just 105 games for the Minnesota Twins in 2024. He hit .253 with a .682 OPS and finished the year with eight home runs, 21 doubles and 42 RBI. Why such a disappointing season?
Kepler battled through injuries this season, which ranged from a bruised right knee to neck spasms to a sore elbow to patellar tendinitis in his left knee, and never really looked right at the plate. You can see he was never himself in his quality of contact and batted ball results. As Harrigan points out, after setting a career-high in 2023 with a 12.2 percent barrel rate, it dropped to 6.2 percent this past season. Likewise, his hard-hit rate dropped to 36.8 percent from 47.9 percent.
So if he struggled so much, why should the Phillies consider Kepler this offseason?
“If Kepler hit the free-agent market last offseason, he would have been one of the top corner outfielders available,” Harrigan says. “Now, he might be flying under the radar in a market that features Juan Soto, Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill and Jurickson Profar.”
Before his subpar 2024 campaign, Kepler had a career .753 OPS and demonstrated a good approach at the plate with a 10.1 percent walk rate and 18.4 percent strikeout rate over the first nine seasons of his career. A left-handed batter, he hit 24 homers in 2023, playing his home games at Target Field, a slightly tougher place for lefties to hit. Kepler could thrive in the lefty-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park.
Kepler has also hit better against lefty pitchers than against right-handers in multiple seasons during his 10-year career in the majors. This past season, he hit .273 versus southpaws, compared to .247 against righties.
As Harrigan also points out, Kepler is a plus defender. Even though he has been primarily a right fielder, he has played some center and has the defensive chops to play left. He has led right field with 27 outs above average over the past four years. With Nick Castellanos presumable holding down right field again next season, a shift to left field for Kepler doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility.
If the Juan Soto pipe dream doesn't come to fruition, and the Phillies miss out on some of the other top outfield free agents, they might find Kepler a cheaper, sneaky option for 2025.