As Kyle Schwarber continues to mash his way through the season for the Philadelphia Phillies, anxiety is building among the fan base around his upcoming free agency. The 32-year-old slugger is on another level this season, putting together a career year — in a contract year no less.
Despite mutual interest and strong motivation from the Phillies, both parties have already agreed that going to the open market to see what other teams are offering is the best plan. What will he ask for in free agency? More importantly, what will he get?
Even more important than that is whether the Phillies will offer him enough to return to likely finish his career in red pinstripes.
Kyle Schwarber predicted to ask for $300 million in free agency
Former Miami Marlins executive David Samson recently weighed in with his prediction for the outcome of Schwarber's foray into free agency. The result is some truly bonkers numbers. He predicts that Schwarber will ask for close to $300 million.
"You can bet that Kyle Schwarber is going to ask for close to $300 million in free agency," Samson said on his Nothing Personal with David Samson podcast.
Schwarber, who will be 33 on Opening Day next season, is carrying the Phillies offense this year. He picked a heck of a good time to have the season he's having. Hitting .256 with a .965 OPS, he's already at 40 home runs and 94 RBIs with 48 games to go.
Will he be able to match this year's production again as he ages into and past his mid-30s? The answer to that question is likely not, but Samson thinks the Phillies will "feel the pressure to keep the band together" and keep Schwarber in Philadelphia. But they won't want to pay the asking price.
Can Phillies sign Kyle Schwarber for less than his ask in free agency?
As Sampson points out, the Houston Astros only had to give Jose Altuve five years and $125 million at 33. The Los Angeles Dodgers had to give 32-year-old Freddie Freeman $162 million over six years. Matt Chapman got $151 million over six years at 31 from the San Francisco Giants. George Springer got $150 for six years from the Toronto Blue Jays in his age-31 season.
"Why is it that Schwarber would get double that?" Samson asks. "Is it because of his production this year, which clearly is close to double the production of these other guys? Schwarber falls in line with these players, not so far out of sync with them."
As a designated hitter, he can't generate as much WAR value since he rarely sees the field. But his production at the plate eclipses all of those players. Since he signed with the Phillies in 2022, his 171 home runs rank second behind only Aaron Judge. His 397 runs rank third in the majors. His 396 RBIs rank fourth.
So, while Samson thinks Schwarber will ask for $300 million, he doesn't think the fan favorite will get that. And he thinks that it will be the Phillies who will pay up.
"Schwarber will re-sign with the Phillies but the number will not start with a three," Samson predicts. "Schwarber back to the Phillies well below 300."
Will it be $150 million? $200 million sounds insane. They'll have to give him term, which could be dangerous for a type of power hitter that has not aged well historically, according to Matthew Creally of Pitcher List. But the Phillies also know first-hand how valuable Schwarber is in the clubhouse.
That's good news for Phillies fans, but only as long as you believe that Schwarber won't just go to the highest bidder. Because as with other big free agent chases, someone is bound to offer too much.