With the MLB Winter Meetings set to take place from Dec. 9-12 in Dallas, Texas, baseball fans are just a few short weeks away from a much more active and exciting period of the offseason getting underway. With trade rumors regarding the Philadelphia Phillies' young core already generating industry buzz and a free agent class bursting with some legitimate superstar talent, all signs are pointing to this offseason being very different than the last.
That's certainly the case for Phillies fans after watching the flawed NL East champions get knocked out of the NLDS with a whimper against the rival New York Mets in four games this past October. Results from the one-sided playoff exit aside, the Phillies roster started to become exposed for its weaknesses as far back as June. Everything that catapulted the team to the best record in baseball suddenly went cold.
A recent assessment of the Phillies roster heading into next season by MLB.com's Mike Petriello succinctly summarized many of the flaws that plagued the team last year, with much of his concern being directed at an outfield ranked 20th overall in WAR. The outfield trio of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Nick Castellanos mostly failed to deliver last season, with most of the blame for the lack of production rightfully landing at the feet of Marsh and Rojas.
Zeroing in on Marsh, his overall numbers are misleading if taken as a complete picture. With a .249 batting average, 104 hits, 16 home runs, 60 RBI and 19 steals, Marsh had a season that in some ways surpassed his production from 2023, but not by a lot.
His OPS fell from .372 to .328, while his strikeouts ticked up a bit, and his walk total also marginally decreased. It was also a season that further cast doubt on Marsh's ability to hit against left-handed pitching after producing a disappointing .192 batting average and 33 strikeouts against southpaws in 78 plate appearances.
After two seasons of subpar production against southpaws, and a large enough sample size showing little in the way of finding an approach, Marsh's profile is starting to resemble that of an MLB platoon player.
Why's that a problem?
When the Phillies swung a deal with the Los Angeles Angels for Marsh at the trade deadline in 2022, they thought they were acquiring a potential young star. That made parting with top catching prospect Logan O'Hoppe look like a no-brainer. But looking at some trends from last season, it's easy to see why that viewpoint is starting to shift unfavorably into the Angels' favor.
Travis d'Arnaud's wish could make Phillies regret trading Logan O'Hoppe for Brandon Marsh
When comparing Marsh and O'Hoppe's numbers from 2024, we begin to see a deal that's starting not to look so good. Every trade has a winner and a loser involved, and it's even rarer for both teams to break even.
With O'Hoppe coming off a breakout first full season that saw him bat .244 along with 117 hits, 20 home runs and 56 RBI, the potential is there for this to become a very lopsided trade in the near future.
At age 24, O'Hoppe finally stayed healthy enough to play a significant role on a mostly forgettable Angels team, appearing in 136 games as the Halos' primary backstop last season. While O'Hoppe has plenty to improve upon next season like cutting down on strikeouts (155) and increasing his OBP (.303), his power potential points to a catcher who carries some serious offensive upside if his plate discipline shows signs of improvement.
That said, O'Hoppe's work behind the plate needs a little more polishing, as evidenced by only throwing out 26.3 percent of would-be base stealers and allowing opposing teams to swipe 84 bags against him in 2024.
To help O'Hoppe improve his handling of the running game and game calling next season, the Angels recently signed veteran catcher Travis d'Arnaud to a two-year deal to back up and mentor O'Hoppe in 2025. d'Arnaud recently spoke with MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger about his mentorship role with the talented youngster going forward.
"I want him to be the greatest Angels catcher of all time," said d'Arnaud per Bollinger.
It's a bit of coincidence that d'Arnaud, once a former Phillies top catching prospect himself, will be taking on a mentorship role with O'Hoppe next season. Aside from that, the veteran catcher has a track record of success over 12 MLB seasons including one All-Star appearance and a World Series title with the Braves in 2021. It's clear from d'Arnaud's statement that he understands what the Angels are asking of him when it comes to furthering O'Hoppe's development.
There are some other factors that further suggest that the Marsh for O'Hoppe deal is starting to age poorly. Marsh's aforementioned struggles against left-handed pitching have reportedly made him a trade candidate this offseason. If he remains with the team, it's possible that Marsh will be strictly viewed as a platoon player in left field going forward next season.
Combine that with J.T. Realmuto being unsigned beyond 2025 and coming off an injury-riddled season, this trade once looked even, but now has the potential to have negative consequences for the Phillies at two important positions during the next two offseasons.