The Philadelphia Phillies came into somewhat of a transition period for the franchise this winter. Some key names hit free agency, but the club's decision to bring them back also raised mixed feelings among the fans. The Phillies don't appear to be quite the powerhouse they were the last few seasons, but that hasn't stopped them from being ranked the best team in the division.
FanGraphs came out with their first ZiPS standings projections before the 2026 season gets underway. It isn't the final projected standings, but it gives Phillies fans something to chew on with how offseasons have gone for every MLB club.
After all the sulking and talks of doomsday coming for the Phillies, they're still projected to win the NL East for the third consecutive year.
Phillies projected to win NL East division, but not by much
There's no popping champagne bottles in January, but it's the hope of what's to come that could settle the nerves around the Philadelphia area. Here's how FanGraphs' senior writer Dan Szymborski and ZiPS projects the NL East to play out.
Team | W | L | GB | Div. Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Phillies | 91 | 71 | _ | 40% |
Mets | 89 | 73 | 2 | 31.7% |
Braves | 86 | 76 | 5 | 23.8% |
Marlins | 76 | 86 | 15 | 4.5% |
Nationals | 63 | 99 | 28 | 0.1% |
Szymborski explains that the core of the Phillies is getting older, but they're still one to count on in 2026. With an eventually healthy Zack Wheeler and a hopeful bounce back from Aaron Nola, the Phillies can stay steady enough to win the division. The offense is still expected to perform, but it may rely more on the rotation this coming season. That's why the arrival of pitching prospect Andrew Painter will be one to monitor as a replacement for left-hander Ranger Suárez.
Winning the division has been a goal of this current era of Phillies baseball, even after their previous entrances into the postseason via the Wild Card. It's a statement they've been proud to make, and it looks like it could go their way again in 2026.
The catch is, the separation could be as small as the projections lay out, by just a few games. They're also projected to secure a first-round bye with the No. 2 seed, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers with a projected 96-66 record.
The Phillies have improved the roster in some parts, while others have fallen behind. The New York Mets have made quite the impression with how they've approached their offseason after a second-half collapse last season. Their acquisition of Bo Bichette, along with the trade for right-hander Freddy Peralta and other roster upgrades, puts them squarely in the conversation for future division champion. They're leaving little doubt of their intentions to steal the division from the Phillies.
The projected standings aren't as good as gold, but they do give an outlook on how the rosters are perceived heading into spring training. Countless Phillies fans have felt down on how this offseason went, but being able to still win the division is massive. The race may be much closer than the 13-game separation last year, but a win is a win at the end of a long season.