The marathon of a baseball season undeniably has its peaks and valleys. At the end of the long race, teams and fans alike look back at the work they've done and can know for certain if their work and win total was enough to punch their ticket to the MLB postseason.
The 2024 season presented the biggest year yet for the Philadelphia Phillies, with 95 wins landing them the beloved title of division champs for the first time since 2011. They ran out of steam early, however, falling to the New York Mets in the NLDS, but again showed an opportunity to grow and come back stronger in 2025.
The problem is that early FanGraphs standings projections don't favor the Phillies to defend the NL East crown next season.
Early FanGraphs projections see Phillies lose short-lived NL East crown in 2025
FanGraphs projections are ever-changing to the smallest degree. Even with a strong showing of a 95-67 record in 2024, the Phillies are currently projected to only amass 87-ish wins in 2025.
Here's a full look at the projected NL East 2025 standings:
Team | W | L | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
Braves | 91.9 | 70.1 | .576 |
Phillies | 87.5 | 74.5 | .540 |
Mets | 86.8 | 75.2 | .536 |
Nationals | 75.7 | 86.3 | .467 |
Marlins | 74.0 | 88.0 | .457 |
The projections can shed an objective light on the current situation while still knowing there's always enough baseball left to overcome any deficit in the win-loss column. Last preseason, the Phillies were projected to finish 14.0 games back of the Braves, and we all know how that turned out. The Braves' big stars went down, with early Cy Young favorite Spencer Strider having reconstructive elbow surgery and Ronald Acuña Jr. suffering another ACL tear.
The Phillies, backed by their stars, flew by a Braves team that failed to find its footing in the division and inevitably lost it to Philadelphia, snapping their division title streak at six, per MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.
Maybe the early projections shouldn't be too surprising, but with Acuña Jr. and Strider slated to return at some point, it seems modest to hold the Braves still atop. The lack of splash this offseason could be the deciding factor in predicting a frustrating second-place finish. The Mets spent the largest contract in sports history to bring in superstar outfielder Juan Soto, so the pressure will only mount with them potentially finishing just one game behind the Phillies.
The Phillies have had the privilege of three straight trips to the postseason in hopes of bringing home the commissioner's trophy and calling themselves World Series champions. The team has demonstrated an inclination to win as they have increased their win total in each of their last seven seasons (excluding the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season).
They were able to defy the odds before, who's to say they can't do it again in an even tougher division just a few months away?