Don Mattingly's mood-boosting Andrew Painter decision clearly backfired

If anyone in the world needed a bounce-back start this week, it was Andrew Painter. The top prospect has really struggled since a scintillating MLB debut, posting a 7.90 ERA (5.67 FIP) in his six subsequent starts.

Thankfully, he rediscovered some old magic in Boston, completely shutting down the Red Sox over five innings. He allowed just one run on a solo shot from Trevor Story, striking out four in the outing while walking nobody for the first time all year (though he did hit a batter).

Despite that dominance -- and the fact that he was just 62 pitches into a 1-1 pitchers' duel -- Philadelphia Phillies skipper Don Mattingly gave Painter the quick hook, pulling the rookie after he struck out the side in the fifth. The decision wound up backfiring once Orion Kerkering gave up a game-winning home run to Ceddanne Rafaela, but Mattingly is adamant that there's a method to his madness.

“We wanted to be proactive tonight with him. We knew from the beginning of the game that the third time through (the lineup) was going to be a spot we were going to try to stay away from. We want to get him going, get him some confidence," Mattingly said after the game. “He threw the ball really well. He got his command back. He didn’t walk anybody. I was happy with him. But knowing we’re going to need him all year long, we wanted to kind of get him building off a good start."

The question is: Was that really the right call to make?

Don Mattingly's logic for pulling Andrew Painter early is frustratingly flawed

From a confidence standpoint, Mattingly was absolutely right to take Painter out on a high note. In his previous start against the Athletics, the rookie was hammered to the tune of three homers and eight earned runs. Wrapping up an efficient, clean outing (even if it was a layup against one of the league's worst offenses) was just what the doctor ordered.

Unfortunately, the data doesn't really suggest that Mattingly's premeditated plan was a perfect one. The sample sizes are small, and the stats are all inflated due to his recent struggles, but check out Painter's numbers each time through the order:

1st time through: 63 plate appearances, 4 HR, .913 OPS
2nd time through: 63 plate appearances, 2 HR, .890 OPS
3rd time through: 26 plate appearances, 1 HR, .885 OPS

There's a clear pattern of Painter getting ambushed early on and then settling into a groove deeper into his starts, which is hardly uncommon for a young pitcher. At just 62 total pitches (by far his fewest in an MLB start thus far), the Phillies may have passed up on his best stuff of the night by subbing him out. He was clearly peaking when he struck out the side in the fifth.

Alas, what's done is done. Mattingly has given us little to question since he took over for Rob Thomson, so Painter may prove him right yet again in the long run.

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