Entering the 2025 season, one of the most anticipated storylines was the potential MLB debut for the Philadelphia Phillies' top pitching prospect Andrew Painter.
The organization's 2021 first round pick dominated in the minor leagues prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023.
As Painter began his rehab back from the injury this spring, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said that his expected target date for arriving in Philadelphia was July or August, depending on the pitcher's health and performance, per former NBC Sports Philadelphia's Corey Seidman.
That timeframe now seems to be in question given the 22-year-old's performance at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
Phillies could delay Andrew Painter’s MLB debut after struggles in Triple-A
While the prospect's health has not been in question as he fights his way back from his surgery, his performance has.
Through three starts at Single-A Clearwater, Painter looked like he hadn't missed a beat. He struck out 12 hitters while walking just one in 11 1/3 innings posting a 3.97 ERA.
In early May, Painter's rehab assignment was transferred to Triple-A. He had never pitched at that level before in his professional career. At this level, Painter has experienced his first real struggles in his professional career. Over 55 2/3 innings, he has posted a 5.01 ERA over 12 outings. The concerning numbers lie in his home run rate and higher walk totals than he had displayed previously.
In his final start before the All-Star break, Painter allowed three runs on two homers and six hits over five innings. Encouragingly, he did not walk any batters.
Andrew Painter went five innings today for Lehigh Valley in Syracuse. Three runs on six hits, including homers by Francisco Alvarez and Jakson Reetz. Painter finishes the first half with a 5.01 ERA in 55.2 innings in triple A.
— Scott Lauber (@ScottLauber) July 13, 2025
Overall, in those 55+ innings, Painter has allowed 11 home runs and has surrendered 20 free passes. His 1.78 HR/9 rate is the highest of his young career.
The Phillies are not going to call up their top prospect just for the sake of appeasing fans. After all, the club's rotation is sporting the best ERA in baseball at the All-Star break.
Painter's tribulations are nothing to be concerned about, however. In fact, the Phillies' brass would rather see him face adversity now instead on in the Majors.
Manager Rob Thomson iterated his thoughts on the right-hander's struggles, per Anthony SanFilippo of On Pattison.
"That's what the minor leagues are for," Thomson said, per SanFilippo. "A lot of guys go through high school, college, and even sometimes in the minor leagues where they don't have any failure and then all of the sudden they get to the Big Leagues and they fail for the first time and they really don't know how to get out of it."
In all likelihood, Painter will be fine. He is still shaking off some rust from his 2023 operation. The pitcher's stuff is still there and he is still widely considered one of the top prospects in the game. His MLB debut will be here soon enough, even if it is later than the organization originally projected.