The Andrew Painter conundrum reached a boiling point in June, forcing the Philadelphia Phillies to demote their rookie pitcher back to Triple-A. In his stead, they promoted Alan Rangel, who has looked pretty good in a trio of bulk appearances. Still, Painter's struggles significantly cut into the team's already-dismal depth in the rotation.
Of course, it doesn't help that Taijuan Walker pitched his way out of Philly, nor is it promising that they let Ranger Suárez walk in free agency without making a legitimate attempt to replace him. Pitching depth has and will continue to be an issue for this organization, at least until Painter and Gage Wood break through at the MLB level.
However, the biggest threat to this team's thin depth chart isn't Painter or Rangel or any other young arm; it's stalwart Aaron Nola.
Phillies are stuck between a rock and a hard place with Aaron Nola
There was always a risk that Nola, who had made a living out of oscillating between All-Star-caliber years and lesser performances, wouldn't live up to his monstrous seven-year deal. A history of elite durability aside, he was already 30 years old at the time he put pen to paper.
Unfortunately, the fall-off has been steeper than anyone could have anticipated. He's now working with an ERA over six for the second consecutive year, and his 4.46 xERA and 5.02 FIP are both career worsts. Even his famed reliability hit a snag in 2025, as he failed to eclipse 100 innings for the first time in a full season since 2015 (his rookie debut).
Health hasn't been as much of a concern this season, but the performance is impossible to ignore. The Phillies are working with three legitimate starters right now (Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, and Jesús Luzardo) and are in need of at least one more in anticipation of a deep playoff run.
The problem is that Nola's contract is huge and nearly impossible to move. And with Painter needing time to work things out in Triple-A, there's basically no one in the organization currently capable of replacing him.
For the DFA Aaron Nola crowd.
— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrPHL) June 30, 2026
1. 4 years remaining on the contract. Nola is owed $98.3 million. This isn’t football, it’s fully guaranteed and the Phillies have to pay it.
The Phillies are also paying two players $38 million to not play here this year. It has handcuffed…
The struggles of Nola and Painter also make it more difficult to improve the rotation via trade. Bigger needs exist on the roster -- please add a right-handed-hitting outfielder -- and the best asset the team has to dangle in discussions (top pitching prospect Gage Wood) is too important to their future given the lack of upper-minors pitching depth.
And thus, we arrive at the Aaron Nola paradox. He's too expensive to move, but his lack of production means the front office has no realistic path to an upgrade. In other words: The Phillies are stuck.
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